3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 9/5/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Bryan Reynolds to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Jake Irvin has given up a total of 16 homers across his last 10 starts for the Washington Nationals -- including 5 starts where he surrendered multiple home runs -- so it only makes sense we'd take someone from the Pittsburgh Pirates to go deep on Thursday. Bryan Reynolds is a switch-hitter who has better numbers against righties, making him a perfect choice versus Irvin and Washington's bullpen.

Irvin is giving up a .330 wOBA, 1.61 HR/9, and 43.4% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters while ranking in the 25th percentile in barrel rate (9.0%) and 48th percentile in hard-hit rate (38.8%). Meanwhile, Reynolds owns a .365 wOBA, 133 wRC+, and .198 ISO when facing right-handed pitchers in 2024.

Over the last 14 days, Reynolds boasts a .406 wOBA, 161 wRC+, and .250 ISO versus righties. During that same 14-day sample, Reynolds has a solid 43.3% fly-ball rate and 26.7% ground-ball rate, so he's lifting the ball more than he's hitting it into the ground.

Reynolds has been seeing the ball well lately with three home runs in his last nine outings for the Pirates. Along with Irvin's woes on the mound, Washington's bullpen has the 5th-worst xFIP (4.34) and 12th-highest fly-ball rate (39.1%) in the last month.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+400)

With lefty Austin Gomber on the bump for the Colorado Rockies, it would seem ideal to target one of the right-handed batters from the Atlanta Braves for a home run. However, Gomber is producing reverse splits in the power department with a 1.82 HR/9 and 39.4% fly-ball rate to lefties, compared to a 1.65 HR/9 and 40.8% fly-ball rate to righties.

Taking that into account, Matt Olson is a premier option to go yard as he is sporting a .359 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and .257 ISO versus southpaws. Additionally, Gomber has allowed at least one homer in 10 of his last 11 starts for the Rockies, and he resides in the 11th percentile in barrel rate (10.3%) and 30th percentile in hard-hit rate (41.2%) this season.

After a slow start to the season, Olson is registering an impressive 17.0% barrel rate, 43.2% hard-hit rate, and 46.6% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days of action. Those metrics have resulted in Olson accumulating four homers in his last 10 contests while also accruing six doubles during that same span, so he's hitting the ball plenty hard enough for extra-base hits.

Gomber's pitch mix is also crucial in Olson's chances of hitting his 26th home run of the season as the hard-hitting lefty has a .227 ISO or better against Gomber's two primary pitches (four-seam fastball and slider) versus left-handed hitters. Just to improve our case even more, Colorado's bullpen has logged the lowest strikeout rate (19.9%), fifth-worst HR/9 (1.5), and highest hard contact rate (39.8%) in the last month.

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+560)

It's tough to ignore just how hard Jackson Merrill has been hitting the baseball recently for the San Diego Padres. Over the last month, Merrill has a 17.6% barrel rate, 46.2% hard-hit rate, and 54.9% fly-ball rate, which has helped propel him into the driver's seat in the National League Rookie of the Year race.

Home runs have become commonplace for Merrill recently as the first-year outfielder has four long balls in his last 10 games. Merrill is currently rocking a .383 wOBA, 151 wRC+, and .236 ISO against right-handed pitching, and Casey Mize is the projected starter for the Detroit Tigers on Thursday.

Just because Mize has reverse splits this season with a .357 wOBA and 1.14 HR/9 allowed to right-handed batters -- compared to a .292 wOBA and 0.60 HR/9 to left-handed batters -- doesn't mean we should ignore his career 1.77 HR/9 given up to lefties. Mize is also permitting a higher fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters (33.1%) than right-handed hitters (26.2%), and that number balloons to 37.9% when he's faced lefties on the road in 2024.

On top of that, Merrill is posting a .218 ISO or better and 37.5% fly-ball rate or better against two of Mize's three primary pitches (four-seam fastball and slider) versus left-handed hitters. Given Merrill's metrics over the last month, there is fantastic value in getting him to homer at these odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.