3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 8/29/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Lawrence Butler to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Lawrence Butler has been rolling for the Oakland Athletics, piecing together a seven-game hitting streak while launching three home runs during the span. He's recorded a dinger in the first two of the three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds. In the series finale, with the A's looking to pull off the sweep, give me Butler to go yard once again.

The pitching matchup is certainly there against Julian Aguiar. The rookie has barely gotten his feet wet with only two starts under his belt. While his 3.60 ERA initially bodes confidence, Aguiar posted single-game skill-interactive ERAs (SIERA) of 5.43 and 5.47 -- paired with 5.95 and 5.62 xFIPs -- over his first two appearances.

The Reds' rookie has allowed a tater in back-to-back starts, and he posted an alarming fly-ball rate of 64.7% in his most recent outing. This is nothing new as Aguiar gave up five dingers over his final four starts in Triple-A before he was called up to the big leagues.

Butler has a fly-ball rate of 39.5%, and he sits in the 84th percentile of xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed, per Savant. Butler is showcasing more than enough favorable stats for some good slugging stretches, as seen by his SLG jumping from .341 in 2023 to .471 this season.

Playing in one of the most advantageous ballparks also serves as a big factor in Butler's chances of going yard. Great American Ball Park currently ranks as the fifth-best venue for dingers, per Park Factors. Considering the recent hot streak and his matchup with an inexperienced rookie, Butler has a good shot of hitting a long ball in his third straight contest.

Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+400)

With the sixth-best SLG in baseball (.571), Rafael Devers is someone we've been able to lean on for home runs through 2024. That could be the case once again for the Boston Red Sox's matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday as long as Devers is able to return to the starting lineup after sitting the past two nights.

The Jays will roll with Bowden Francis, who has been a starter in only 8 of is 19 career appearances. However, Francis has done an excellent job of providing quality starts over his previous four outings, finishing the seventh inning in each of his last three. He will make his fifth straight appearance as a starter on Thursday, but this could be an avenue for the Red Sox to go yard.

Look no further than Devers. He has the 10th-highest home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB rate) in MLB. Initially, dingers don't seem to be a worry for Francis (top 37% in hard-hit rate). However, Francis' fly-ball rate is way up since he's stepped back into a starting role. In fact, his single-game fly-ball rate has been 50.0% or higher in three straight outings.

We shouldn't completely count out Francis turning in a short start considering his relieving background. If this comes true, the Blue Jays' bullpen has the third-highest ERA, a 4.42 xFIP, a -2.1 WAR, and 15.2% HR/FB rate.

FanDuel Research's MLB projections give Devers the third-highest median projected homers (0.32) among tonight's four-game evening slate. If correct, this carries a 27.4% implied probability for a home run (or +265 odds). Devers' +400 odds to go deep hold a 20.0% implied probability. The matchup and -- even more importantly -- the value is there for Devers to hit one over the fence.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Some of the Baltimore Orioles' home run lines are a bit puzzling for tonight's clash with the Los Angeles Dodgers. L.A. gives up the eighth-most dingers per contest while the O's launch the second-most homers per game in MLB.

The Dodgers aren't starting an ace on Thursday, either. Bobby Miller has an 8.24 ERA since July. His HR/FB rate is an alarming 25.0% on the season. He's in the bottom 1% in average exit velocity, bottom 4% in barrel rate, and bottom 2% in hard-hit percentage. Miller has also given up seven dingers over his last four starts.

We should fully expect Baltimore to hit a homer or two today. Gunnar Henderson is worth a look as he is sitting in the top 6% in average exit velocity, top 2% in hard-hit rate, and top 4% in bat speed. Henderson is hitting at least .270 against two of Miller's top three most-used pitches (changeup and curveball). Additionally, Henderson has the fourth-highest HR/FB rate in baseball, and his fly-ball rate over the last month of play is 3.0 percentage points higher than his season average.

Our projections are giving Henderson a median projection of 0.31 homers. That's a 26.7% implied probability (or +275 odds). His current +450 line has an implied probability of only 18.2%. All in all, this +450 number is pretty appealing.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.