3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 8/22/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Making his fifth start since returning from Tommy John surgery, Jeffrey Springs of the Tampa Bay Rays is a vulnerable target for home run props. He's allowed four dingers through four starts and holds a concerning 48.2% allowed hard-hit rate.

Give me the Oakland Athletics' home run leader -- Brent Rooker -- to go yard on Springs. He's in the 87th percentile of xBA, 98th percentile of xSLG, 98th percentile of barrel rate, and 94 percentile of hard-hit rate. By most accounts, Rooker has been an elite batter; there's a reason he touts the seventh-highest SLG in baseball (.563).

Targeting a right-handed hitter is the way to go with Springs allowing a 2.1 HR/9, .545 SLG, and 43.6% fly-ball rate against righties. For reference, this would be the second-highest SLG of his career against right-handed hitters since entering the league in 2018. An allowed slash line of .327/.393/.545 against righties just adds to the concern for Springs.

Rooker is holding the 14th-highest hard-hit rate among batters this season, and he gets to see two of his favorite pitches for launching long balls in this matchup. Springs features a trio of pitches with a four-seam fastball (39.8%), changeup (33.5%), and slider (20.2%). Rooker's highest homer marks are against four-seamers (eight) and sliders (nine); that's 17 of his 29 jacks.

Considering Springs' early struggles against slugging righties, Rooker looks like a nightmare matchup for Tampa Bay's starter.

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+400)

For the Houston Astros-Baltimore Orioles matchup, Spencer Arrighetti and Corbin Burnes will be on the bump.

Arrighetti has a 5.20 ERA and posted an xFIP over 5.00 in two of his last five starts, while Burnes holds the second-shortest odds to win the American League Cy Young award (+950). Houston's hurler is in the bottom 27% in hard-hit rate, whereas Baltimore leads MLB with a 43.0% hard-hit percentage. We have our answer on which starter looks the most likely to give up a dinger.

FanDuel Research's daily projections have Gunnar Henderson carrying the highest projected median for a homer (0.32) in this matchup, barely ahead of Anthony Santander's 0.3. Which batter is the best bet?

Arrighetti's numbers are a bit higher against right-handed hitters, giving the advantage to the switch-hitter Santander. For example, Arrighetti carries a 1.4 HR/9 and 43.7% fly-ball percentage when facing righties versus a 1.2 HR/9 and 43.5% fly-ball rate against lefties.

These numbers are not alarming, though, especially the HR/9 marks. Yet, Arrighetti has surrendered four homers over his last two and multiple dingers in three of his previous four outings. Both marks have soared over the last month as Arrighetti holds a 2.1 HR/9 and 59.5% fly-ball rate against righties during the span.

As if Santander's league-high 57.2% fly-ball percentage wasn't impressive enough, he's increased the number to 60.0% over the last 30 days. His projected median of 0.3 homers carries a 25.9% implied probability (or +286 odds) for one home run. This is excellent value when compared to Santander's +400 odds to smash another long ball.

Francisco Lindor to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Dylan Cease doesn't generate a lot of confidence for home runs, for the San Diego Padres' ace is in the 74th percentile of hard-hit percentage while touting a 3.24 SIERA and 3.26 xFIP. However, head-to-head matchups give us an angle on which of the New York Mets' batters are worth backing.

Over nine career at-bats against Cease, Francisco Lindor is batting .333, and all three hits were homers -- taking his SLG to 1.333 in the matchup. Lindor has produced three dingers over his last eight while Cease has given up a homer in back-to-back starts.

His 1.0 HR/9 is far from concerning, but Cease looks a bit more vulnerable with his 1.7 HR/9 over his previous two outings. Plus, Lindor has increased his 36.3% hard-hit rate to 42.0% over the last 30 days, and pair this with the four-time All-Star touting a .531 SLG this month compared to his season average of .477. Now we are cooking.

Lindor is tied for the highest projected median homers (0.3) in this contest, which carries a 25.9% implied probability (or +286 odds) for recording a big fly. Similar to Santander's line, projections are suggesting Lindor's chances of hitting a dinger is much more likely than the odds say. His +480 line has an implied probability of only 17.2% compared to the projected median at 25.9%.

With a recent uptick in slugging and past success against Cease, Lindor is a promising pick to hit another tater.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.