3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Sunday 9/1/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Austin Wells to Hit a Home Run (+340)

The New York Yankees have plenty of candidates for a home run today, but Austin Wells deserves some love buried behind the Bronx Bombers.

Wells is torching right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, compiling a 1.161 OPS, .309 ISO, 44.2% flyball rate, and 45.5% hard-hit rate across 62 plate appearances (PAs). Luckily for him, the Yanks face a struggling righty for the St. Louis Cardinals today.

That is Miles Mikolas, whose sinker isn't sinking much right now. His 36.5% flyball rate is his second-worst for a season with the Cardinals, and that's an issue with a 40.9% hard-hit rate allowed behind it. Mikolas' 4.41 xERA and 16.1% strikeout rate are also in the 35th percentile or worse among MLB qualifiers.

Despite great contact numbers, Wells has just 2 games with home runs in his past 11. More will be on the way at MLB's third-best park for dingers.

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Who doesn't want to celebrate Sunday with a "Yordong"?

Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros conclude their series with the Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park, and it'll be against a favorite of mine in this column. Royals starter Alec Marsh has struggled with the long ball all season (1.20 HR/9) thanks to an elevated flyball (43.5%) and hard-hit rate (40.8%) allowed.

Meanwhile, the 'Stros designated hitter is designated hitting against righties at present, posting an 1.180 OPS, .348 ISO, 47.5% flyball rate, and 44.3% hard-hit rate across his last 83 PAs.

Our daily MLB projections caught word of this mashing and have Alvarez forecasted for the second-most home runs (0.34) of any player today. If correct, that projection would merit roughly +247 odds for a bomb.

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Is Gunnar Henderson going to really leave this series at Coors Field without a bomb?

I'm not betting on it -- especially facing what'll largely be a bullpen day for the Colorado Rockies. Projected starter Ty Blach hasn't topped 60 MLB pitches since June 20th, leaving the bulk of the game to a Colorado 'pen that has the fourth-worst xFIP in baseball over the last 30 days (4.49).

That makes it tough to pin down a matchup for Henderson, but a high-level overview of his bat is still awesome for a tater. He's actually struggled with efficiency (.669 OPS) over the past 30 days, but the Baltimore Orioles' shortstop has a .169 ISO, 34.1% flyball rate, and 43.9% hard-hit rate over his last 118 PAs. That's plenty good enough at baseball's best park for hitters.

Henderson is the one player with a better homer forecast than Alvarez (0.35 projected) as our projections' favorite overall pick to go deep today.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.