3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Sunday 8/18/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Quietly becoming the one of the league's better power threats against righties,Luke Raley shouldn't be discounted to go yard today.

The Seattle Mariners will battle the Pittsburgh Pirates, and Pittsburgh is sending Jake Woodford to the mound. The sinkerballer just isn't having much success with the sinker lately, though. He's allowed a 42.5% flyball rate and 40.0% hard-hit rate -- a harrowing prospect when we know the strikeout upside (13.7%) won't be there.

Plus, Woodford will be relieved by MLB's eighth-worst bullpen by xFIP over the past 30 days. (4.47)

Meanwhile, the Mariners' lefty, Raley, has raked for an .877 OPS, .310 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 41.9% hard-hit rate over the last 30 days, amounting to 51 total plate appearances (PAs).

Raley caught my eye in our daily MLB projections with such a gaudy projection of 0.27 home runs. If correct, that would merit +323 odds for a long ball, and he's arguably Seattle's best profile to go deep overall.

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+420)

I'm batting .500 writing up Jackson Merrill to go deep in the past eight days -- and he's nearly done the same.

Against right-handed pitching, Merrill is scorching the majors for a 1.074 OPS, .377 ISO, 51.9% flyball rate, and 47.3% hard-hit rate. The San Diego Padres outfielder hasn't gone deep during this weekend series at Coors Field yet, but hitting ropes like this, it's only a matter of time.

MLB's best park for hitters allows me to excuse a more ambiguous matchup than I'd normally target for a bomb. Bradley Blalock homer avoidance at elevation in Triple-A (1.08 HR/9 allowed) has actually been quite good, but Blalock's 50.0% flyball and 50.0% hard-hit rate allowed in 2.9 innings thus far sound more like a dong waiting to happen. Colorado's bullpen (4.50 xFIP in the last 30 days) isn't much better behind him.

Quite a few Padres have shortened in the home run market in anticipation of this matchup, but Merrill is still showing value in FanDuel Research's projections. At 0.21 expected median homers, we'd line him closer to +428 for a bomb.

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Let's see if we can snatch a homer off Tyler Mahle this time.

After giving up 1.75 HR/9 last year with the Minnesota Twins, Mahle hasn't been dented for a dinger in 9.2 innings thus far. Nonetheless, his 4.50 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 46.4% flyball rate don't seem like the ingredients for a pitcher to stay perfect in that regard. Who better than his former team to break the trend?

There are quite a few Twins mashing right-handers at present, yet I feel Trevor Larnach might be a bit undervalued to take Mahle deep relative to his teammates. In the last 30 days, Larnach's .822 OPS, .212 ISO, 52.4% flyball rate, and 45.2% hard-hit rate against righties are right up there with Royce Lewis and the now-injured Byron Buxton on his club.

So, too, is his projection in our model. We've got Larnach at 0.30 median home runs today, implying roughly +286 odds for a bomb if correct. If you're going to take one pick from today's article, the projections vote for this guy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.