3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Sunday 8/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Alex Bregman to Hit a Home Run (+420)

You can't run for long, James Paxton.

The newly acquired Boston Red Sox lefty has given up just two homers in 15.1 innings with the new club, but Paxton's splits look like a well-mixed cocktail for home runs. This season, he's posted a 4.71 expected ERA (xERA) with elevated flyball (43.1%) and hard-hit rate (43.2%).

Yet, he's dodged the longball thanks to a 9.2% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) that is well below the league average (12.9%) despite playing home contests in two of baseball's friendliest venues for bombs. It's wizardry.

Alex Bregman might be able to put a stop to the madness. The Houston Astros third baseman has pummeled left-handed pitching for a .731 OPS, .259 ISO, 44.4% flyball rate, and 44.4% hard-hit rate over the past 30 days.

Our daily MLB projections slot Bregman at 0.23 expected home runs in today's contest. If correct, that would merit roughly +387 odds for one, but I especially see value in him listed as the fourth-longest Houston batter to go deep despite the team's best power numbers against lefties recently.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+210)

It's been a tough week for "All Rise" Nation, but Aaron Judge has a matchup to send one into the bleachers today.

Judge hasn't homered since August 3rd, which is a normal drought for most but an eerie one for the sensational New York Yankees outfielder. Some of that could be due to just 30 plate appearances (PAs) against southpaws in the past 30 days, yet he'll get to face one today, and that's excellent news. He's clubbed lefties for a 1.128 OPS, .364 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 46.2% hard-hit rate this season across 126 PAs.

Today's contestant is lefty Andrew Heaney. Heaney's rate of 1.17 homers per nine (HR/9) allowed this year is actually his lowest since 2015, yet I wouldn't call it a corner turned. Heaney's flyball (46.5%) and hard-hit (40.3%) rates are still well above the league average; he's just been fortunate to post a 9.4% HR:FB ratio.

Our projections expect 0.46 home runs out of Judge on Sunday, which is the most of any player in action. I had to double check it had been so long without a bomb, but a lefty primed to cede them in droves should get him going again.

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+420)

I feature no player more in this article than Brent Rooker. It's because he's constantly got the same contact splits and home run projection as an Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani yet is priced like an Alex Bregman daily.

Rooker went deep for his 29th round-tripper of the season yesterday, and I expected a bomb or two in this trip north of the border. On Sunday, the series will close with right-hander Chris Bassitt. Against righties in the past 30 days, Rooker has amassed a gaudy 1.103 OPS, .429 ISO, 43.6% flyball rate, and 47.6% (!) hard-hit rate across 75 PAs. I'll stop playing him when he stops mashing.

Though Bassitt has historically been a tricky sinkerballer to target for dongs, he's let up modest flyball (35.6%) and hard-hit (38.6%) rates this season. I just see his 0.90 HR/9 as a fib when it's come via a 9.6% HR:FB ratio. Plus, relieving Bassitt will be a bullpen with the second-worst xFIP over the past month (5.00).

Only Judge is projected for more dingers than Rooker (0.41) across today's games. At roughly +197 implied if that's correct, I have to scoop up the Oakland Athletics outfielder again as a value play.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.