3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Saturday 8/17/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+240)

Today's slate is an unusually difficult one for homers. A plethora of sinkerballers, some bad weather, and teams in their worst split for power all contribute to that. Sometimes it's best to go back to a reliable friend like Yordan Alvarez.

Before any other context about the Houston Astros designated hitter is given today, he's facing off with the Chicago White Sox, and that's a good indication before even discussing the team's best flyball target, Chris Flexen. Flexen has given up 1.45 homers per nine (HR/9) this season behind extremely high flyball (47.4%) and hard-hit (37.3%) rates allowed.

It's worth mentioning that, when Flexen departs, Chicago has the worst bullpen xFIP over the past 30 days (5.00). The quality ABs should keep coming.

The 'Stros are down Alex Bregman at the moment, leaving this lineup quite short on power threats against righties except Alvarez. "Old Reliable" has still mashed a 1.003 OPS, .310 ISO, 59.2% flyball rate, and 44.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in the past 30 days or 72 plate appearances (PAs).

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 0.33 homers out of Alvarez on Saturday, which, if correct, would merit +258 odds for a bomb. We're just out of value range, but if you want to target Flexen today, there really is no sensible alternative.

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+285)
Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Again, the difficult landscape made it more feasible to double dip in an elite spot. The Atlanta Braves definitely have one.

They're in MLB's seventh-best park for home runs to battle Griffin Canning and the Los Angeles Angels. Canning has been shelled for a 4.76 expected ERA (xERA) and 1.54 HR/9 this season -- neither of which overly surprising when taking a peek at his flyball (39.2%) and hard-hit (40.5%) rates allowed. Following Canning will be the sixth-worst bullpen (per a 4.76 xFIP) over the past month of play.

Our projections green-lit a pair of right-handed sluggers to potentially take advantage of him. First is Marcell Ozuna, who has dismantled righties all season long yet maintained a stellar 1.034 OPS, .319 ISO, 40.9% flyball rate, and 39.8% hard-hit rate against them in the past 30 days. At 0.47 projected round-trippers, our projections would set roughly +167 odds on an Ozuna big fly. That projection is the most of any player today.

His third baseman, Austin Riley, can answer the call, too. Riley has a .725 OPS and .228 ISO in these parameters to fall behind Ozuna in the counting categories, but it could be bad luck when his flyball (43.3%) and hard-hit rates (40.3%) are actually better.

At the longer odds, Riley's projection of 0.27 home runs still works. If correct, that would imply +323 odds for a dinger.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.