3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 9/23/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Let's kick off today's home run props by targeting one of the hottest power hitters in baseball.

Across the last 30 days of play, Kyle Schwarber has been generating a 25.4% barrel rate (fourth-highest in MLB), 60.6% hard-hit rate, and .287 ISO, which has resulted in eight home runs (tied for tenth-most).

Nate Pearson, who has pitched solely in relief this season, will make the start for the opposing Chicago Cubs.

Pearson surrenders a 43.8% fly-ball rate and 1.26 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters. While it's hard to say how long the Cubs will let him go in this contest, the leadoff-hitting Schwarber will be guaranteed at least one at-bat with this platoon advantage.

Schwarber dominates righties with a .256 ISO and 46.1% fly-ball rate. 15 of his 36 home runs have come in the first inning, so I like where this matchup against a fly-ball-prone Pearson pits him.

Past Pearson, Chicago will bring in a bullpen that has ceded a 40.4% fly-ball rate (ninth-highest) and a lucky 10.5% home run-to-fly-ball ratio (10th-lowest) this season. The Cubs have already been eliminated from playoff contention and are perhaps looking to get funky by giving Pearson the ball tonight. There could be even friendlier matchups past Pearson for Schwarbs.

Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+430)
Christian Walker to Hit a Home Run (+370)

Hayden Birdsong is the most obvious pitcher to attack in today's home run market.

The rookie comes in with a 4.74 ERA, 4.75 xERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 4.54 SIERA. While he's impressed with a 26.0% strikeout rate, right-handed hitters have too oft got the better of him.

Birdsong coughs up a .268 ISO, .505 SLG, 50.7% fly-ball rate, and 2.39 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters. That fly-ball rate is something we'll want to hone in on as Birdsong looks ahead to a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that has belted the fourth-most home runs (tied; 206) this season.

I'm torn on which right-handed power hitter to target from Arizona, so, why choose?

Let's start with Eugenio Suarez. He's raking to the tune of a 17.9% barrel rate, 46.2% fly-ball rate, and .327 ISO across the last 30 days of play. Since July 7th, only Shohei Ohtani has hit more home runs (25) than Suarez (23).

Suarez produces a .223 ISO and 46.3% fly-ball rate versus righties, putting him in a spot to deliver opposite Birdsong.

Next up, let's look for Christian Walker to capitalize on a potential bounce-back opportunity. Walker's 7.0% barrel rate across the last 30 days leaves much to be desired and has resulted in just three homers in that span. But he still rocks a .218 ISO and 44.2% fly-ball rate in this split and has been overall dominant against righties, including a .260 ISO and a 49.4% fly-ball rate (eighth-highest in MLB).

The Diamondbacks are currently holding down the final NL Wild Card spot, so they're a worthy group to target in an MLB season that has grown meaningless for many teams. Arizona could rake against a fly-ball-friendly thrower, and while Ketel Marte (35 home runs) could also throw his hat into the ring here, his lackluster 33.9% fly-ball rate has me more bullish on targeting Arizona's heavy hitters.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.