3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 9/16/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+360)

Antonio Senzatela will make his first start since May 10th, 2023 tonight. A torn ACL cut his 2022 season short while the ensuing year resulted in season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Senzatela posted a 5.07 ERA and 5.24 xERA through 92 frames in 2022. It's easy to picture him getting dinged up in what is sure to be a tough first outing following a serious injury. Not only will he face an intimidating Arizona Diamondbacks offense, but he'll do so at a high-altitude Coors Field, one of the friendliest home run parks in MLB.

There are a few players we could turn to here, but ultimately, I'm keen on targeting Eugenio Suarez to go long. Suarez has posted a stellar 16.7% barrel rate, 46.2% fly-ball rate, 179 wRC+ (fourth-highest in MLB), and .337 ISO (third-highest) across the last 30 days of play.

Since July 7th, no player in MLB has hit more home runs than Suarez (22). That's right -- he's outdone even the likes of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

He's got a hot hand and has all the fixings to exploit this matchup, including a seismic 46.3% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. Suarez also draws only a 6.2% walk rate against this handedness, elevating his potential to see some proper at-bats in this one.

Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+400)

It's not every day that we find Ohtani's home run prop at these odds. The shoo-in to win NL MVP has smashed 47 home runs this season (second-most in MLB). He's hit at least one home run in 31.5% of games, yet these +400 odds imply just a 20.0% probability.

Ohtani will not have the platoon advantage opposite Max Fried tonight, but that won't stop me from targeting him in this spot.

For starters, Ohtani still has great numbers against left-handed pitchers, including a .219 ISO, .490 SLG, and 129 wRC+. Fried, meanwhile, has struggled in same-handedness matchups this season. He surrenders a .381 wOBA, .472 SLG, and 1.52 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters.

Across the last 30 days of play, Ohtani has been eviscerating opponents with a 23.1% barrel rate (third-best in MLB), 64.1% hard-hit rate (second), 51.9% fly-ball rate (seventh), and .356 ISO (first).

He sits at the top of the batting order for the Los Angeles Dodgers, leaving him in a spot to potentially notch five plate appearances in this one. Fried's shortcomings against lefties put Ohtani in a spot to belt one over the fence, and the Dodgers' superstar could have an even better matchup in store later in the game if the Atlanta Braves bring in a right-handed reliever.

Cody Bellinger to Hit a Home Run (+560)

No pitcher in Major League Baseball (minimum 110 IP) allows a higher fly-ball rate (56.6%) than Joey Estes does. Given this lofty percentage of fly-balls allowed, it's natural that we target Estes' opponents in the home run market.

Estes will take the mound opposite the Chicago Cubs this evening. Against lefty bats, the right-handed Estes coughs up a .215 ISO, .444 SLG, 1.51 home runs per nine frames, and a 56.0% fly-ball rate (highest in MLB).

Which left-handed Cub should we back to go long tonight? I've got my eye on Cody Bellinger.

Bellinger has been generating a .206 ISO and 42.9% fly-ball rate across the last 30 days of play, so he's a worthy power-hitting candidate. On the season, Bellinger has produced a 45.6% fly-ball rate, good for the 19th-highest in MLB.

When a top-20 fly-ball hitter faces the most fly-ball-prone pitcher of all and holds the platoon advantage, it's easy to make an argument for said hitter in this market, especially since we can find Bellinger's home run odds at +560. In addition to all that, Bellinger has hit four dingers across his last 10 games, so we're trailing a hot hand here.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.