3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 8/5/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best Home Run Props

Tyler Fitzgerald to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Of all the stars in action Monday, it's Tyler Fitzgerald of the San Francisco Giants that is our daily MLB projections' top pick for a round-tripper regardless of odds.

Fitzgerald has absolutely raked like an All-Star against left-handed pitching, vaulting him into the projected leadoff spot for S.F. tonight. He's posted a 1.356 OPS, .593 ISO, 44.4% flyball rate, and 36.8% hard-hit rate in the split over the past 30 days.

With those numbers, he's got a vulnerable southpaw on the opposite bump this evening. Patrick Corbin's downward trend with the Washington Nationals has extended into 2024, posting a hideous 5.84 expected ERA (xERA) on the back of a 47.0% hard-hit rate and 9.0% barrel rate allowed. Even with a low flyball rate (32.0%), he's coughed up 1.19 HR/9.

FanDuel Research's projections expect 0.42 homers out of Fitz within this elite matchup, which would roughly translate to +192 odds for one if correct.

Hunter Renfroe to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Here's a player our projections are a bit lower on (0.14 home runs), but I can't ignore the way Hunter Renfroe is swinging against southpaws as he's set to face his former team.

Renfroe used to pummel lefties for the Boston Red Sox, yet the current Kansas City Royals outfielder is now operating in that role for K.C. Specifically, Renfroe has posted a 1.475 OPS, .375 ISO, 40.0% flyball rate, and 53.3% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching over the past month of play.

Newly acquired Red Sox lefty James Paxton has to be shaking in his boots. "The Big Maple" holds an ugly 4.83 xERA, 43.4% flyball rate allowed, and 43.5% hard-hit rate allowed in a solid sample of 93.2 innings. He's been fortunate to avoid homers by posting a 9.7% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) that is well below the league average (12.9%).

Plus, the Boston bullpen is leaking like a sieve if their 5.23 xFIP over the past 30 days (second-worst in MLB) is any indication.

Projected to hit fifth, Renfroe should have a quality matchup for a dong throughout Monday's contest.

Shea Langeliers to Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Chicago White Sox have lost 20 games in a row, and as you'd imagine, that comes from a collective that's permitting a ton of longballs.

Tonight's contestant is right-hander Jonathan Cannon, whose rate of 1.16 HR/9 allowed pales in comparison to several teammates. Yet, he's been fortunate to be burned for a 9.7% HR:FB ratio to this stage despite above-average flyball (38.1%) and hard-hit (38.1%) rates allowed.

As a true reason for the losing skid, the Pale Hose 'pen is also the only club with a reliever xFIP (5.28) worse than Boston's over the past month.

I'm intrigued by these odds for Shea Langeliers, who has emerged as a real "Robin" to Brent Rooker's "Batman" with the Oakland Athletics. Against righties like Cannon, Langeliers has posted an .703 OPS, .214 ISO, 51.3% flyball rate, and 35.9% hard-hit rate in his last 30 days (or 65 plate appearances). That'll produce a bomb or two.

We've got Langeliers projected for 0.32 home runs on Monday, which, if correct, would roughly translate to +265 implied odds for a second dinger this month.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay wager on any MLB game happening August 5th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.