3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 8/26/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+330)

The New York Yankees have the day's highest non-Coors implied total (5.06), and their matchup with Mitchell Parker makes them a prime candidate for the long-ball tonight.

Parker has pitched to a 4.26 ERA while surrendering a 41.7% fly-ball rate on the year. That fly-ball rate has jumped to 47.3% over the second half, putting Juan Soto in position to send one over the fence.

Soto just homered yesterday, and he's been red-hot over the second half. Since the All-Star break, Soto's tied for third in the majors with 14 home runs. He ranks third in ISO (.425) and second in barrel rate (23.4%) over that span.

The lefty hitter hasn't missed a beat in same-handed matchups, either. For the season, Soto has a .308 ISO, 37.9% fly-ball rate, and 25.5% HR/FB rate against left-handed pitchers.

That bodes well for his chances of going yard against a fly-ball heavy arm like Parker, and it makes him my preferred Yankee to target for a home run at +330 odds.

Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+340)

It's been an uncharacteristically quiet second half for Bryce Harper, but he's begun to show signs of life in recent games.

Harper went 4-for-13 with three doubles over the weekend, though he still hasn't homered since August 9th.

But in a home matchup against Ronel Blanco, Harper's in a nice spot to get back on track and send one over the fence tonight.

Blanco has been a big part of the Houston Astros' success this season, but he isn't without his faults. His profile is one we typically look to target for homers, what with his 9.4% barrel rate, 43.5% fly-ball rate, and 12.8% HR/FB rate.

That's resulted in Blanco giving up 1.31 HR/9 -- a rate that climbs to 1.66 against left-handed batters.

Though the lefty-hitting Harper's wOBA against righties has dipped to .269 since the All-Star break, his ISO is still at .202. For the season, he has a .251 ISO, 41.1% fly-ball rate, and 20.5% HR/FB rate in this split.

With Harper in his preferred power split and with a sneaky-strong matchup for a homer, I can certainly get on board with him to leave the yard at +340 odds.

Michael Toglia to Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Colorado Rockies are at Coors Field against Edward Cabrera tonight, and he's the exact kind of pitcher we want to target for home run props.

The righty has a 5.65 ERA on the season, and while he's given up just a 32.5% fly-ball rate, his 23.6% HR/FB rate is among the worst marks in baseball. Cabrera has surrendered a 9.9% barrel rate, too, so it's not like opposing hitters have struggled to square him up.

That's resulted in Cabrera allowing a home run in nine of 14 starts, including two in his most recent outing.

That puts the Rockies on home run watch tonight. With a righty on the bump, I'm looking for Michael Toglia to go yard.

The young slugger is prone to strikeouts, but he's established himself as one of the rising power hitters in the league. According to Baseball Savant, Toglia sits in the 94th percentile for xSLG (.532), 98th percentile for barrel rate (17.3%), and 93rd percentile for hard-hit rate (50.3%). His .497 expected wOBA on contact is in the top 2% of the league.

He's more than held his own against righties, posting a .767 OPS and .245 ISO while generating a 45.5% fly-ball rate and 21.8% HR/FB rate.

At one of top ballpark for home runs and with a strong matchup, Toglia's in a nice spot to go yard.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.