3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 8/19/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Brandon Lowe is on the road today to face Joe Boyle and the Oakland Athletics. The park isn't a great one for homers, but I still like this spot.

Boyle is hard to get a read on for two reasons -- we're working with small samples and he issues so many walks.

Through his first 47 2/3 MLB innings, the right-hander owns a 14.6% walk rate. In 38 1/3 frames in Triple-A this year, his walk rate was a staggering 20.4%. Yes, 20.4%. So as much as this is a bet on Lowe versus Boyle, it's also a bet on Lowe versus the Oakland bullpen -- a group that is 17th in xFIP (4.11) -- because Boyle probably won't get too deep into this one.

That's not to say Boyle is a meh matchup. He's been obliterated by left-handed hitters in his career to the tune of a .386 wOBA and 42.6% fly-ball rate.

Lowe has excellent numbers against righties -- .353 wOBA, 42.1% hard-hit rate and 42.8% fly-ball rate -- and has been much better on the road (.396 wOBA) than at home (.336) so far this season.

Vinnie Pasquantino to Hit a Home Run (+600)

The +600 odds on Vinnie Pasquantino to hit a homer are pretty darn appealing.

Pasquantino is taking on righty Carson Fulmer, and he feasts in this split. With the platoon advantage in 2024, Pasquantino owns a .342 wOBA and 45.1% fly-ball rate while striking out just 11.2% of the time. At home against right-handers, he's been even better -- .369 wOBA and 44.6% fly-ball rate.

Fulmer is a good matchup for Pasquantino because the Los Angeles Angels' right-hander is struggling against lefty bats. In the split, Fulmer has permitted 1.59 homers per nine innings along with a 39.6% hard-hit rate and 42.6% fly-ball rate. He's been tagged for five jacks over his past 23 1/3 innings.

Jake Cronenworth to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Jake Cronenworth draws a matchup with rookie right-hander Zebby Matthews.

Matthews tore through the Minnesota Twins' system this year and put up some truly gaudy numbers, including a 30.1% K rate and 2.9% walk rate over 55 1/3 innings at Double-A. Limiting walks has been a strength for Matthews throughout his minor-league career, but that's not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to taking a homer prop against him as it means Cronenworth should get some pitches to hit.

Despite his stellar profile, Matthews has had some home-run issues at various points. He gave up 1.89 dingers per nine in only 19 frames in Triple-A. In 2023, he surrendered 1.76 homers per nine over 66 2/3 innings at High-A.

Cronenworth has a .346 expected wOBA for the campaign, and he does most of his damage against righties, posting a .348 wOBA in the split. Of Cronenworth's 15 taters, 14 have been hit versus a righty and 10 have come at home versus a righty -- which is tonight's exact situation.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.