3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 7/29/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best Home Run Props

Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+460)

One look at Simeon Woods Richardson's 3.27 ERA suggests this might not be a tremendous spot for a homer. Yet, Woods Richardson's contact splits imply some damage might be on the way.

The right-hander's 4.18 skill-interactive SIERA (SIERA) also has a 43.1% flyball rate and 36.7% hard-hit rate allowed behind it. The reason Woods Richardson has only ceded 0.82 HR/9 so far? An extremely fortunate 7.3% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) when the league average is 12.8%.

Enter Mark Vientos. The third baseman is one of the surprising contributors of a lethal New York Mets attack, and though his OPS against righties in the past month (.661) isn't that of a typical home run slugger, he's got the right formula. Vientos has clubbed a 41.9% flyball and 44.9% hard-hit rate in this time.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections are somewhat confident in this matchup, pegging him for 0.34 median home runs. If correct, that would deserve roughly +247 odds for one.

Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Though the Atlanta Braves' woes against righties have continued, Austin Riley hasn't been contributing to them.

In the past 30 days, Riley has posted a .900 OPS, .306 ISO, 48.0% flyball rate, and 48.0% hard-hit rate against righties in a sizable sample of 79 plate appearances (PAs). With that rate of elite contact, he should homer often just as he did yesterday.

Tonight's opponent is a good one to keep that rolling. Visiting the Milwaukee Brewers, he'll draw Colin Rea, who sports a 4.88 expected ERA (xERA) in addition to above-average flyball (38.0%) and hard-hit (40.9%) rates allowed. Like our previous hurler, a 10.9% HR:FB ratio has saved his bacon.

Plus, Milwaukee's 'pen is on the ropes, posting MLB's 10th-highest xFIP (4.19) over the past month.

We've got Riley projected for 0.33 homers tonight, which would roughly merit +256 odds if correct.

MJ Melendez to Hit a Home Run (+370)

No HR:FB ratio luck is at play for Chris Flexen of the Chicago White Sox.

He's ceded 1.52 HR/9 this year on the back of 46.5% flyball and 37.5% hard-hit rates allowed. That's a harrowing proposition considering he's a low-whiff contact pitcher (16.9% K rate).

Though Bobby Witt Jr. will get deserving votes to take him deep, I actually prefer the way MJ Melendez is swinging the bat in the Kansas City Royals outfield at the moment. Melendez has posted an identical 44.0% flyball and 44.0% hard-hit rate against righties over his last month (36 PAs) when Witt's hard contact rate (29.0%) isn't stellar.

We've got Melendez projected for 0.27 homers in this one, deserving roughly +323 odds for one. His matchup is the best of the three we've mentioned so far considering the Pale Hose's bullpen (4.66 xFIP in last 30 days) is back to its early-season form.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.