3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 9/6/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Using our MLB DFS projections is often a great tool to zero in on props. However, it doesn't provide any strong take for the Los Angeles Dodgers' Teoscar Hernandez tonight. He's carrying a median projection of 0.28 dingers, which is a 24.4% implied probability (or +310 odds). That's pretty much right in line with his current +320 line to go yard (23.8% implied probability).

However, the actual matchup suggests this is an excellent take. The Cleveland Guardians' Matt Boyd holds a 2.38 ERA over four starts, which understandably causes many to run from the matchup. Boyd is a regression candidate, though, posting single-game xFIPs of 4.88 and 7.25 in two of his previous three starts, per FanGraphs. Plus, the Dodgers hold the third-highest batting average and OBA against lefties.

Hernandez is the ideal batter for this matchup with his slash line of .299/.360/.591 when facing lefties compared to .254/.319/.451 against righties. He also holds an exceptional 27.0% HR/FB when facing left-handed hurlers.

Boyd holds a 41.7% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters, but this jumps to 53.1% when facing righties. Boyd hasn't held a FB% of 50.0% against right-handed hitters since 2018. Pair this with Teoscar's 27.0% HR/FB against southpaws, and we have sound reasoning for taking this line.

Jhonkensy Noel to Hit a Home Run (+300)

If you like homers, Guardians-Dodgers is for you. I'm taking another dinger in this matchup, this time backing one of Cleveland's batters. Few are slugging like Jhonkensy Noel right now. For example, he carried a .615 SLG while logging seven big flies in August.

L.A. is putting Landon Knack on the rubber, and he's in the bottom 21% of average exist velocity, bottom 16% in barrel rate, and bottom 14% in hard-hit percentage allowed, per Baseball Savant. Knack has also let up five dingers over his previous four starts. During this span, his 50.0% fly-ball rate and 16.7% HR/FB against right-handed hitters has jumped to 51.9% and 21.4% during the four-outing span.

Let's take a moment to highlight the 21.4% HR/FB. For reference, Brayan Bello holds the highest HR/FB among qualifying pitchers at 17.0%. Knack's season-long HR/FB against righties is already alarming enough (16.7%), but jumping by nearly four percentage points over his last four appearances leaves us no choice to take one of the Guardians' right-handed slugger.

There could be no better option than Noel. Eight of his 13 homers have come against four-seam fastballs and sliders -- which are Knack's most-used pitches. His slider holds the lowest xSLG among his qualifying pitches, but Noel is raking to the tune of .316 when seeing this pitch.

Additionally, Noel is tied for the highest median projected taters at 0.4 -- a 33.0% implied probability for launching one over the fence. That's eight percentage points higher than Noel's current implied probability of 25.0% suggested by his +300 odds to hit a home run. Not only is the favorable matchup present but so is the value.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays is in the bottom 19% of average exit velocity, bottom 10% in barrel rate, and bottom 22% in hard-hit rate allowed. He's also given up four dingers over his last six starts. The Atlanta Braves have two batters tied for the highest median projected homers for tonight, held by Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson. Ozuna is a righty while Olson swings from the left side of the plate. We could make this pick just from looking at splits.

Ozuna has been much more dangerous this season with 37 dingers and a .570 SLG compared to Olson's 25 home runs and .440 SLG. However, it's hard to ignore Gausman's success against right-handed hitters over the last month. He's made five starts over the last 30 days and held righties to zero home runs during the span. Lefties came up with both of Gausman's taters allowed.

His 48.9% fly-ball rate against lefties over the last 30 days holds a lot more promise compared to 41.5% versus righties during that span. From this perspective, Olson looks like the way to go.

After recording an elite 27.8% HR/FB a season ago, Olson's mark is down to 15.8% in the category. Fortunately, he's posted a 46.7% fly-ball rate over the last 30 days compared to his season-long mark of 42.1%. Plus, Olson is still among the top quarter of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage.

Olson is hitting .300 with a .600 SLG over 10 at-bats against Gausman. Atlanta's first baseman is hitting above his season-long batting average when facing four-seam fastballs and splitters, which are Gausman's most-used pitches.

Projections are suggesting excellent value here. If correct, 0.4 median projected homers holds a 33.0% implied probability (or +203 odds). That's hard to pass on with Olson's +400 odds to go yard holding a 20.0% implied probability.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.