3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 8/23/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Juan Soto has 11 hits against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days, amounting to 48 plate appearances (PAs). An astounding seven of those have been home runs.

For whatever reason, the free-agent-to-be has absolutely devoured same-handed matchups recently. Soto's total production amounts to a 1.404 OPS, .649 (!) ISO, 54.5% flyball rate, and 50.0% hard-hit rate against lefties in this time, making him arguably the best in the sport in the split right now. He'll draw another on Friday.

That comes in the form of Kyle Freeland. The Colorado Rockies' southpaw draws the New York Yankees away from Coors Field, yet he still should be in for a tough evening in MLB's third-best park for homers. Freeland's 36.2% flyball, 41.2% hard-hit rate, and 9.2% barrel rates allowed are all ripe for a long ball, which is how he's ceded 1.37 HR/9 to this stage.

We've got Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton all forecasted in our daily MLB projections right around 0.35 home runs today, yet Soto has the longest odds with the best recent contact numbers. Don't let a platoon fallacy get in the way of value here; our projections would set this line closer to +239.

Joc Pederson to Hit a Home Run (+500)

All in all, this workable matchup for Joc Pederson seems to be undervalued at five-to-one.

His Arizona Diamondbacks visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway, presenting an interesting push-pull dynamic with Sox starter Brayan Bello. Bello's 51.0% groundball rate is no bueno for dingers, but the right-hander has made mistakes all season, per a 42.2% hard-hit rate and 1.38 HR/9. This is also MLB's second-best park for hitting, and the Boston bullpen has struggled mightily in the past 30 days (4.81 xFIP) -- two more pluses in Joc's column.

Pederson has demolished right-handers in the past month like he has a majority of his career, posting 1.343 OPS, .490 ISO, 42.5% flyball rate, and 40.0% hard-hit rate across 66 PAs.

We've got Pederson projected for 0.31 home runs on Friday. If correct, that would roughly merit +275 odds for a bomb, so the Arizona lefty is numberFire's favorite value pick to go yard tonight.

Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Honey, wake up. It's "Chris Flexen Day" for home run bettors.

The Chicago White Sox's embattled righty has been a popular target of this column, and it's no secret as to why. Flexen has posted a 5.26 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) with a 46.4% flyball rate and average hard-hit (37.9%) and barrel (7.9%) rates allowed, wrapping into 1.40 HR/9 allowed. The White Sox's bullpen (4.90 xFIP in the past 30 days) will tack on a quality at-bat or two for dessert.

Now that he's back in the order, there's no Detroit Tigers target better for a right-handed pitcher than Kerry Carpenter. In 28 PAs since returning, the right fielder has lambasted opposite-handed hurlers for a .929 OPS, .429 ISO, 58.8% flyball rate, and 41.2% hard-hit rate -- like he never even left.

Our projections also spotted a value line for Carpenter. At 0.25 projected home runs, they'd line him closer to +352 for at least one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.