3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 8/16/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Spencer Steer to Hit a Home Run (+430)

The Cincinnati Reds have a tasty home matchup versus Michael Lorenzen, and I went back and forth on whether I preferred Spencer Steer or Elly De La Cruz (+430) to go yard. Ultimately, Lorenzen's 2024 splits steered me to Steer (sorry, had to).

Lorenzen is getting blowtorched by righties this season to the tune of a .368 wOBA and 1.74 homers per nine innings.

Steer has been slightly more productive against righties (.331 wOBA) than lefties (.322), and 11 of his 18 dingers this season have come at home.

The Reds are -130 to go over 4.5 runs, so they're expected to have success today, and I like this spot for Steer to put one over the fence.

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Brandon Lowe is in a good spot today at home versus Ryne Nelson.

Nelson, a righty, has permitted a 40.1% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters as well as 1.17 homers per nine in the split.

Lowe has been swinging it well in the second half, posting a .357 wOBA in that span. At home versus righties this year, Lowe owns a 40.8% hard-hit rate.

According to our MLB projections, Lowe has the fifth-best home run projection for Friday.

Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+350)

The player most likely to hit a tater today, per our numbers?

Royce Lewis.

And that says a lot given that we have a Coors game tonight.

Lewis is on the road versus Andrew Heaney. The left-handed Heaney can get swings and misses (12.0% swinging-strike rate), but when righties make contact, it's usually loud as right-handed hitters have recorded a 46.8% fly-ball rate and 1.30 homers per nine against him.

Lewis' 2024 samples are small, but he's been incredible with the platoon advantage, smashing lefties for a .425 wOBA and 4 jacks in just 58 plate appearances in the split. It was a similar story last year as he amassed a 51.3% fly-ball rate versus left-handers.

All in all, these +350 odds are pretty appealing for a batter who our projections give the best chance to pop a dinger.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.