3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 7/26/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best Home Run Props

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+630)

Our projections are trusting long-term form with Trevor Larnach today.

The Minnesota Twins' projected three-hole hitter has homered just twice in July, but his 39.3% flyball rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching are awesome in a lengthy sample of 226 plate appearances (PAs).

He'll have a workable matchup in Detroit Tigers righty Keider Montero. Montero has surrendered 1.99 HR/9, and his flyball (38.1%) and hard-hit (36.5%) rates allowed aren't particularly scary to expect that to drastically drop. He's 31.2 innings deep into the season at this stage.

Plus, Detroit's bullpen (4.12 xFIP in the last 30 days) has been underperforming recently. The Twins should be able to do damage throughout Friday's game.

We've got Larnach projected for a team-high 0.35 homers, implying roughly +239 odds for one. At such distant odds, he's the Twin you'll want to back in this matchup.

Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+310)

Drew Thorpe is a better pitcher than most I prefer to target, but Cal Raleigh merits an exception against any right-hander.

Thorpe's hard-hit rate (32.5%) and barrel rate (4.4%) sit solid to this point, but he does have a tendency to cede lofted balls in play (43.8% flyball rate). His 8.2% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB) is well below the league average (13.0%), so he's been a bit fortunate to not let it bite him.

Plus, the Chicago White Sox bullpen has been a tire fire all season, and that hasn't been different in the past month (4.51 xFIP; fourth-worst in MLB).

Raleigh is the type of slugger that can turn mistakes into round-trippers. He's got a mammoth 44.2% flyball rate, 44.2% hard-hit rate, and 11 homers against right-handed pitching this season.

We've got the Seattle Mariners' backstop projected for 0.36 dingers in this matchup, which implies roughly +231 odds for one.

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+285)

One of baseball's most pleasant surprises in 2024, Brent Rooker could add to his whopping home run total (24) on Friday.

Rooker and the Oakland Athletics will face the Los Angeles Angels in Carson Fulmer's third start of the year. He's topped out at 77 pitches, so we should also see good bits of a Halos bullpen that's sporting the second-worst xFIP over the past month (4.79).

While Fulmer toes the slab, he's a homer target for certain, per a 38.6% flyball and 40.7% hard-hit rate allowed. He's surrendered 1.05 HR/9 as is despite a below-average HR:FB ratio (11.1%).

Of course, the A's slugger actually shines brightest in this split, sporting a .931 OPS, .265 ISO, 45.6% flyball rate, and 43.8% hard-hit rate in a gigantic sample as an everyday player (296 PAs).

FanDuel Research expects 0.42 homers out of Rooker on Friday (roughly +192 implied), so even these short odds might not be short enough.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.