3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Dinger Tuesday (8/13/24)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

On top of that, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a Dinger Tuesdays promo for all customers betting a home run wager on any MLB game today, August 13th, 2024!

How to Claim This Promo

Claim this promo by signing into your FanDuel Sportsbook account and opting in. You can then place a $25+ pre-live, straight, "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game taking place on August 13th.

You’ll receive $5 in Bonus Bets for each home run hit by either team in the game — regardless of whether your bet wins or loses! See full terms at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best Home Run Props

Utilizing our home run projections — which are powered by numberFire — as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Taijuan Walker should allow us to celebrate Dinger Tuesday as early as possible.

In one of the first games to commence, Walker and the Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins, which is tremendous news for the visitors. The right-hander has limped to a 6.41 expected ERA (xERA) while allowing 2.04 homers per nine (HR/9) this season. That's no fluke when also coughing up a 44.5% flyball rate and 51.2% hard-hit rate.

Miami certainly isn't flush on sluggers after the trade deadline, but Jake Burger is closing the season strong. In same-handed matchups over the past 30 days, the third baseman has posted a 1.095 OPS, .344 ISO, 46.3% flyball rate, and 41.5% hard-hit rate. That's led to six bombs in this stretch.

Our daily MLB projections certainly like his chances for a seventh. Burger's 0.37 median projected home runs trail only Giancarlo Stanton of players in action today. If correct, that projection would merit +223 odds for a big fly.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Though scorching at the dish overall, I was a bit surprised to learn Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has just two home runs in August.

He's certainly trending in a direction to add to that total quickly. Over the past month of play, Guerrero Jr. has posted a 1.421 OPS, .444 ISO, 40.9% flyball rate, and 48.1% hard-hit rate. That split is noteworthy when the Toronto Blue Jays are set to face a right-hander in MLB's seventh-best ballpark for taters.

The righty in question is Carson Fulmer, and Fulmer is no stranger to ceding home runs. He's ceded 1.52 HR/9 in his career as a starter, which is the role the Los Angeles Angels have asked from him of late. I'm not optimistic he can avoid the long ball with elevated flyball (42.5%) and hard-hit (42.5%) rates across 67.1 innings this season. Plus, Fulmer hasn't topped 90 pitches yet, so we should see plenty of MLB's fifth-worst bullpen by xFIP (4.72) over the past 30 days.

Our projections took note of this matchup, expecting 0.33 homers from Vladdy on Tuesday. If that projection is correct, it would merit +256 odds for a dinger.

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+630)

The San Diego Padres are mashing at this dish right now, and they've got a sublime matchup on Tuesday to keep going.

Luis Ortiz of the Pittsburgh Pirates could be more vulnerable in "Slam Diego" than either a 3.40 ERA or 0.90 HR/9 allowed would suggest. Those result stats don't match his 42.4% flyball and 37.4% hard-hit rates allowed but show the good fortune of a 7.9% homer-to-flyball ratio that is well below the league average (12.0%).

Ortiz has coughed up 1.59 HR/9 to lefties and just 0.36 to righties, so I wanted a lefty from the Friars. Jurickson Profar and Jake Cronenworth were options, but it's hard to ignore what Jackson Merrill is doing at the dish right now -- much less with his glove.

Over the past month, Merrill has amassed a 1.053 OPS, .373 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 44.4% hard-hit rate across his last 68 plate appearances (PAs) against right-handers like Ortiz. He's got 4 home runs in this stretch despite just 17 for the year, so I'm not sure the market has caught up to this power binge.

FanDuel Research's projections have, though. Expecting 0.20 home runs from Merrill in this contest and assuming that's correct, they'd place the line closer to +452 for at least one dong.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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