3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Dinger Tuesday (7/30/24)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

How to Participate in Dinger Tuesdays

You can place a pre-live, straight "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game taking place on July 30th, 2024. Get Bonus Bets for each home run BOTH TEAMS hit in the game!

1. Sign up or sign into your FanDuel Sportsbook account.
2. Opt in on the promotions page.
3. Place a $25+ pre-live, straight, "To Hit a Home Run" wager on any MLB game taking place on July 30th.
4. Get $5 in Bonus Bets for each home run hit by either team in the game — regardless of whether your bet wins or loses.

You may only have one eligible wager per person, per game. Only your first wager on the eligible game will count toward Dinger Tuesday.

The promotion ends at 11:00 PM ET on July 30, 2024.

See full terms and conditions on the promotions page.

Place your bet today!

Refund issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com.

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

21+ (18+ D.C.) and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, D.C., IA, KY, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).

Best Home Run Props

Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+285)

The odds for Cal Raleigh to hit a dong tonight are short, but few -- if any -- can match his profile to club one off a southpaw at present.

In the past 30 days, the Seattle Mariners' backstop has an absurd 1.330 OPS, .640 ISO, 69.6% fly-ball rate, and 43.5% hard-hit rate in a decent sample of 27 plate appearances (PAs). He's notched five homers in this time already.

Tonight in MLB's second-friendliest park for hitters, he's got a tremendous matchup for one in the form of James Paxton. The newly-acquired lefty has allowed an above-average 42.6% fly-ball rate and 43.3% hard-hit rate yet has been fortunate to post just 1.11 HR/9 allowed thanks to a homer-to-fly-ball ratio (9.5% HR/FB) that is well below the league average (12.8%).

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections have Raleigh projected for a team-high 0.22 homers in this one. I want a piece of Paxton with the Mariners on Dinger Tuesday, and he's easily their top candidate.

Mark Vientos to Hit a Home Run (+480)

After a loud double in a tougher Monday matchup, I'm going back to the well with Mark Vientos on Tuesday.

Vientos' splits against righties are well-positioned to end a three-game streak without a bomb. He's posted a .154 ISO, 40.0% fly-ball rate, and 42.2% hard-hit rate against them in the past month of action, which might be a bit masked by a low batting average (.231) overall.

The New York Mets square off with Minnesota Twins righty David Festa on Tuesday, and Festa has been a fiesta for longballs. He's given up 3.14 HR/9 to start his career -- a stat not likely to dip a ton if his fly-ball (48.9%) and hard-hit (39.6%) rates allowed don't improve.

Our projections expect 0.36 homers out of the Mets' third baseman on Tuesday, which, if correct, would merit +231 odds for at least one.

Ezequiel Tovar to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Death, taxes, and targeting Griffin Canning in front of the terrible Los Angeles Angels bullpen.

Canning has permitted 1.63 HR/9 this season, which isn't too surprising given a 39.3% fly-ball and 40.7% hard-hit rate allowed behind it. Even worse, this data has stuck through his giant sample of innings (110.2).

When he departs, the Halos 'pen has the fourth-worst reliever xFIP (4.69) across baseball in the past month. The Colorado Rockies' inconsistent offense might be able to plate runs away from Coors Field tonight.

With that the case, Ezequiel Tovar's reverse splits will work nicely for a homer prop. He's posted a 1.028 OPS, .276 ISO, 38.1% fly-ball rate, and 41.9% hard-hit rate over the course of 60 PAs in the past 30 days.

Tovar is projected for 0.28 home runs by FanDuel Research on Tuesday. That would merit +309 odds for one if correct, and the shortstop is quietly the Rockies' best power threat against righties when Brenton Doyle is likely absent from the lineup tonight.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.