3 Best Player Prop Picks for Bengals at Chargers on Sunday Night Football
A desperate Joe Shiesty? That'll play.
Sunday Night Football brings a marquee matchup of 2020 NFL Draft quarterbacks. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will visit Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a game where both teams don't want to fall much further behind the juggernauts that lead their division.
Cincinnati is coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Baltimore Ravens where they led 21-7 and failed a two-point conversion to win with seconds left. In Week 10, the Bolts got the next-best thing to a bye week in the NFL: a home date with the Tennessee Titans. They, as most do, crushed the embattled Flameheads.
Which team comes out with a win?
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out as the Bengals take on the Chargers on Sunday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Bengals at Chargers Best Player Prop Bets
Gus Edwards Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown (+250)
Gus Edwards - Rushing Yds
After a trip to the mechanic, "The Gus Bus" is rolling again.
Gus Edwards was supposed to be the Chargers' RB1 this season, which seemed like as futile a plan then as it does now. Early in the year, J.K. Dobbins' superior efficiency took over the backfield, but Dobbins -- enduring the full grind of the NFL season for the first time in a while -- has tailed off as of late. According to Next Gen Stats, he's posted a negative expected points added per carry (EPA/c) four times in the last five games.
So, where do the Bolts go from here? Probably something closer to a committee, including Kimani Vidal picking away at third-down work. Hassan Haskins had a touchdown last week on two red zone carries. Still, this line undersells Edwards' potential role in that committee.
In his first game back, Gus carried the ball 10 times for 53 yards and 0.16 EPA/c. He led the team in red zone carries (4) ahead of Dobbins (2) and Haskins (2), which should be expected of the 13-time touchdown scorer a season ago.
This is a workable matchup for him, too. The Bengals are 21st in schedule-adjusted rush defense, according to numberFire's metrics.
FanDuel Research's Week 12 NFL projections expect 33.8 rushing yards and 0.30 total touchdowns from Edwards on 7.2 carries -- and I'll handily take the over on that mark. These lines could look like a steal if L.A. shifts back toward their initial starter to begin the season.
Josh Palmer's Longest Reception Under 18.5 Yards (-110)
Joshua Palmer - Longest Reception
"He's hit this in six straight games."
That's prop betting methodology you've probably heard on social media or through betting advice columns like this one. That can be a decent point to a larger argument to take a betting line, but it can't be the only reason. A great example why is Josh Palmer's longest reception prop this weekend. He's living on borrowed time cashing it.
The former Tennessee Volunteers standout's role is shrinking by the week. He's ran just 58.6% of the Chargers' routes in the last two weeks, operating as their WR3. He's drawn a total of six targets, making it far from a lock he even catches a pass on Sunday.
In general, Palmer's 19.0 yards per reception mark seems like a natural fit here. However, that's significantly outperformed a 13.8 average depth of target (aDOT). Plus, these are deep targets, which have significantly more variance of being caught at all, yet Palmer's secured 18 of 28 total looks this season.
Cincinnati's two-high look allows the seventh-lowest aDOT in the NFL to wideouts (10.0), and Palmer is in a bad role that's shrinking. We've got him projected at 13.8 yards per reception, declining from an unsustainable current rate.
There's a reason books have set this at 18.5 yards despite a catch of at least 24 yards in six straight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.