3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Patriots at Jets

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 82.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

The New England Patriots (1-1) and New York Jets (1-1) will square off for an AFC East bout in Week 3's Thursday Night Football match.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been the pulse of a Patriots team that is determined for greener pastures in 2024, and I like him to go over his rushing plus receiving yards prop tonight.

Let's start with Stevenson's usage, which is among the juiciest in the NFL. He logged 25 and 21 carries in Week's 1 and 2 for a total of 201 yards. I should note that two of these carries came in overtime, though they resulted in just two yards. He's also caught five of his eight targets, good for a 17.0% target share.

Antonio Gibson was a bit of a non-factor in Week 1, logging seven carries for just 18 yards. He picked up the slack in Week 2, notching 11 carries for 96 yards, including one 45-yard rush.

Should we be concerned about Gibson in regard to Stevenson's usage? No, not really. It says a lot about New England's passing game that both of these players were afforded 90-plus yards from scrimmage in the same game. Beyond the natural shortcomings of New England's wideouts, Jacoby Brissett has been pressured at the league's second-highest rate (44.3%; via PFF) through two weeks.

The pass protection might not get any better because the Pats will be missing Vederian Lowe (knee) and Sidy Sow (ankle) in this one, while Mike Onwenu and center David Andrews are both listed as questionable. It doesn't help that the Jets have managed seven sacks (tied for third-most) so far this season.

In turn, we should expect New England, who has logged the third-most rush attempts this season, to continue the trend of shoving the run game into the ground. The Jets have allowed the ninth-most rush yards (310) through two games. FanDuel Research's NFL projections expect Stevenson to log 70.5 yards on the ground tonight.

Since Brissett is already being pressured at a super high rate and the Jets' D has the fixings to exploit that, we could expect Stevenson to play a meaningful role in the passing game, too. He's already eating up 17.0% of targets, though it's resulted in just 15 yards. He'll have an opportunity to make more of those dump-offs tonight. Our projections forecast him to tally 21.6 receiving yards tonight, good for an expected 92.1 total scrimmage yards.

Ja'Lynn Polk Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I don't think we should be scared to side with the under here, even given the very low bar.

Ja'Lynn Polk has caught three of his four targets for a total of 18 yards through two games. Yes, one of those catches resulted in the end zone, and he's been running 76.5% of routes. New England wants him in there. But an 8.5% target share in this offense is brutal.

It's hard to see how Polk fits into the equation tonight. Brissett has thrown only 30 completions this season, and there might not be any more receptions to go around against the Jets. Hunter Henry has logged 15 targets, K.J. Osborn has been gifted eight, and as mentioned Stevenson has seen eight.

Further, Demario Douglas has voiced frustration with his muted role (three targets), and Brissett indicated that he is looking to get New England's 2023 receiving yards leader the ball more. While that may be all talk, it wouldn't be surprising to see Douglas get some meaningful targets tonight. His receiving yards prop is set at 26.5, the second-highest on the team behind Henry.

Although the Patriots enter as 6.5-point underdogs, the low 38.5 over/under proves that this sets up to be a battle of the defenses. A dub tonight would be huge for New England, so I'm expecting their offense to stick to what has been working with Stevenson, Gibson, and Henry. Past those guys, the rookie Polk could potentially be third among the wideouts to see opportunities, behind Osborn and Douglas.

Mike Williams Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Mike Williams sustained a season-ending torn ACL in Week 3 of last season.

Almost a year later, could Williams be primed for his first big game with the Jets?

He was activated off the team's PUP list a few weeks before the season started, but a plan for a slow return to play resulted in just a 19.4% route rate in Week 1. Then on Sunday, we saw Williams start to put the injury behind him. He ran 69.7% of routes in Week 2, quite the jump in usage. He also managed an impressive 19-yard catch in that one, though it was his lone target in the game.

Robert Saleh indicated that an increased rep count for Williams is the expectation, even with the shortened week leading into Thursday.

Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard are the only other New York wideouts who have received targets this season, so the room isn't chock-full of competition. Our projections forecast Williams to reel in 42.6 receiving yards in this one. If you feel comfortable buying low on him, you can get Williams 40+ Receiving Yards at +190 and Williams Anytime Touchdown at +500.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.