3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Falcons

Week 5's installment of Thursday Night Football offers us an exciting NFC South battle with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) visiting the Atlanta Falcons (2-2). The home team has -130 odds on their moneyline, and the over/under sits at 43.5 points.

The Falcons currently have +165 NFC South odds (shortest) while the Bucs trail close behind at +195 odds. This division figures to be one of the most exciting ones to track this season, so we should be in for a fun contest tonight.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

Mike Evans Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Baker Mayfield has proven to be a great vessel for passing production this season.

He enters Week 5 with the 10th-best passing grade (per PFF) and has thrown for 984 yards (sixth-most). Mayfield has the top downfield passing numbers and went 8-for-13 on downfield attempts in Week 4 alone for a total of 144 yards. He also holds the fourth-highest passer rating in a clean pocket and will now take on a Falcons team that ranks last in pressure rate (22.4%) by a pretty substantial margin.

Tampa Bay is supported by the eighth-best offensive line in the NFL (per PFF). When we take this, Mayfield's downfield and clean pocket passing metrics, and Atlanta's ultra-low pressure rate all into account, it seems the Bucs are primed for their run-of-the-mill success in the air tonight. In turn, I love getting Mike Evans' receiving prop at this number.

Evans has handled a 22.7% target share (second-highest on team) and 39.4% air yards share (highest) this season. Chris Godwin (34) has Evans (29) beat out in total targets, but Evans held a 24.5% target share to Godwin's 23.8% share a season ago. Those two should both be very busy all season.

In Week 3, Evans was limited to three targets in a game where he was guarded by Patrick Surtain and the Bucs were held to just seven points. Godwin saw nine targets in that outlier game for Tampa Bay's offense. But Evans clasps a bigger hold on those downfield looks and is in no way playing a distant second fiddle to Godwin, as much as I love Godwin. We saw this last week when Evans reeled in 94 yards via 14 targets while Godwin logged 69 yards via 9 targets.

Despite seeing a massive 14 targets and 29.7% target share a week ago, Evans' receiving prop is set at just 59.5 yards in a game that, as mentioned, could be fruitful for Baker and his receivers.

Evans was limited in practice this week but does not carry an injury designation, so I imagine the Bucs were just looking to preserve him in the shortened week. I should note that Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer have both been ruled out for this game. Those two have combined for 12 targets and 104 yards through four games. The only other wideout who has been targeted this season is Sterling Shepard with five, so it should be all systems go for Evans and Godwin.

Our NFL projections expect Evans to eat up 68.1 receiving yards this evening.

Bijan Robinson Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Tyler Allgeier is laughing at fantasy football managers who thought Bijan Robinson was in for a total workhorse season. Allgeier has handled 27 carries for 166 yards via 6.1 yards per carry, so he's likely not going anywhere. Robinson, meanwhile, has been limited to 59 rush yards across his last two games, and his mark of 4.1 yards per carry isn't a resounding endorsement of his efficiency.

But Bijan still plays a huge role for this team, and we can check out his receiving prop to find some value tonight.

Robinson's 83.3% snap share and 75.0% opportunity share prove that he's a staple, even if the rushing volume and production have been hindered. He touts a 14.2% target share, one that has allotted him 135 receiving yards this season. He's logged 25-plus receiving yards in all but one game and has posted a minimum of 21 yards.

Robinson holds an intriguing outlook in the passing game tonight. Tampa Bay leads the league in blitz rate at 54.4%, and that's the third-highest rate for a defense through four games since 2020 (per PFF). We should expect the blitz to come out in full force tonight, as Kirk Cousins ranks 25th against the blitz and has thrown four interceptions this season. I'm expecting plenty of short dump-offs to Bijan in this one, something the Falcons already like to do.

Tampa Bay's blitz-heavy nature has allowed opposing running backs to record the second-most yards and third-most targets this season. The over on Bijan's receiving prop might just be my favorite prop for this game. Our projections have him down for 32.52 receiving yards tonight.

Cade Otton Anytime Touchdown (+370)

We've touched on Evans and Godwin, but tight end Cade Otton is the other Buccaneer seeing legitimate work in this offense.

Otton sports a 16.4% target share, 18.8% red zone target share, and 92.5% snap share through four games. He's been targeted 21 times this season but has yet to reach the end zone. Across the league, 81 players have earned at least 18 targets this year and 70.3% of those players have reached the end zone.

Even more intriguing? Otton has earned a massive 21.5% target share across his last two games. A season ago, he scored four touchdowns on just 67 targets. He's drawn in nearly a third of that target total already this season.

Atlanta is surrendering 5.7 targets per game to opposing tight ends, the 12th-most in the NFL. With +370 odds on his touchdown prop, Otton is someone I am backing as tonight's scoring regression candidate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.