3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Bengals at Ravens
Week 10 will kick off with an ideal matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) and Baltimore Ravens (6-3).
These AFC North groups squared off in a must-watch overtime battle in Week 5, where the Ravens prevailed with a 41-38 win. Baltimore heads into this one as 6.5-point home favorites in a game that's showing a massive 53.5 over/under. The Bengals' backs are against the wall as they fight for a playoff spot, so we should be in for an awesome primetime bout.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets
Chase Brown Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-113) / Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown (-125)
Zack Moss (neck) will be sidelined indefinitely for the Bengals. He missed this past Sunday's game and Chase Brown exploded in his absence.
Brown logged 157 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in Week 9. He handled an unreal 27 carries and caught all 5 of his targets for 37 receiving yards. Unfortunately, he's in for a daunting matchup against a third-ranked Baltimore schedule-adjusted rush defense. The Ravens are allowing a mere 3.23 yards per carry (second-fewest in the NFL) to opposing backs, so I'm not quite ready to pull the trigger on Brown's rushing prop, which is set at 58.5 yards. I am, however, into Brown's receiving line.
Moss typically handles the pass-catching duties in Cincinnati's backfield, but Brown enjoyed a 13.5% target share without him on Sunday. Tee Higgins (quad) is listed as doubtful for tonight, so Brown's overall usage looks peachy. Plus, the Ravens are ceding the ninth-most targets and fourth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season.
Chase Brown - Receiving Yds
Let's also look for Brown to reach the end zone. On Sunday, he saw 8 out of 16 red-zone chances for the Bengals. He also handled 87.5% of the team's red zone rushes. Further, Brown has reached the end zone at least once in five of his last six games. Add in a scorching 53.5 over/under, and Brown's -125 touchdown odds seem like a fair enough shake.
Ja'Marr Chase 100+ Receiving Yards (+180)
Despite his status as one of the league's most gifted wideouts, Ja'Marr Chase has cracked 100 receiving yards just twice this season. I think we'll see a spike game tonight.
On the season, Chase touts a 22.1% target share, 27.9% air yards share, and averages 2.4 downfield targets per game. Since Higgins, who is eating up a 29.2% target share and 42.0% air yards share, is expected to sit, Chase figures to take on a massive role.
Luckily, he and Joe Burrow are drawing a matchup against a 30th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. The Ravens have coughed up the third-most targets, receptions, and yards to opposing WRs this season. They're also letting up 12.98 yards per catch to the position.
In Week 5, Chase caught 10 of his 12 targets for a season-high 193 yards against Baltimore. In the four games since, Baltimore has let an opposing pass-catcher notch at least 99 receiving yards in all but one game.
Our NFL projections forecast Chase to tally 96.8 yards in this one. With +180 odds available, I'll back him to crack 100.
Derrick Henry Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
It's no fun to bet on Derrick Henry's touchdown prop when it's set at -290, but there are other ways to get in on him, and I like where we're getting his yardage line for Thursday.
Henry currently leads the league with 1,052 rushing yards. He's also averaging a crazy 6.3 yards per carry, the second-most among players who have handled at least 100 carries this campaign.
King Henry has eclipsed 90.5 rushing yards in six of his last seven games. He went for 132-plus yards in four of those contests. A date with a soft rush defense looms, so I don't see what's stopping him from more of the same in Week 10.
Derrick Henry - Rushing Yds
The Bengals come in with the sixth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense. As 6.5-point favorites, the Ravens could easily stumble into a positive game script, which would uplift Henry's usage.
In Week 5, Henry rushed for 92 yards via 15 carries against the Bengals. Those 6.1 yards per carry was his fourth-most efficient game this season. Our projections expect Henry to handle a monstrous 20 carries for 97 yards in this one.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.