3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: 49ers at Seahawks
Week 6 will kick off with an NFC West rivalry game between the San Francisco 49ers (2-3) and Seattle Seahawks (3-2). Both teams are looking to bounce back after tough upset losses a week ago.
FanDuel Sportsbook's NFC West odds show that the Niners (-115) are in the driver's seat ahead of the Seahawks (+220) in the race for the divisional crown, but the odds in this market will look different come Friday morning.
The road Niners are favored by 3.5 points in a game that features a 48.5-point over/under, the third-highest total in Week 6.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets
Kenneth Walker Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Kenneth Walker III shined on the ground in his first two games of the season. He handled a combined 32 carries for 183 yards, good for 5.7 yards per rush attempt. But then this past Sunday, Walker saw his volume and efficiency hit a low, rushing for just 19 yards via five carries.
Part of Sunday's dud had to do with Seattle being down or even with the Giants from the start of the second quarter on, putting them in a negative game script. The Seahawks are already the most pass-happy team in the NFL, with Geno Smith leading the league in yards (1,466) and attempts (199) and Seattle ranking first in pass-play percentage (67.4%).
Walker's rushing volume may be a bit unsteady, but his role in the passing game is intriguing. He caught seven of his eight (!!!) targets for 57 yards on Sunday. The week before, he caught four of his five targets for 36 yards.
His 13.7% target share is especially notable considering he finds himself in a super pass-heavy offense, and we have every reason to believe his target volume will stick in this matchup against the Niners.
For starters, Seattle's 27th-ranked offensive line (via PFF) has been terrible at protecting Geno, allowing him to get sacked 18 times through five games, including seven takedowns on Sunday. The quick dump-offs to Walker have been a must.
Further, San Francisco has allowed opposing running backs the 13th-most targets (5.8) and seventh-most receiving yards (42.2) per game. This matchup sets up to be a fruitful day in the air for Walker.
Brandon Aiyuk Anytime Touchdown (+165)
Across the league, 21 players have logged at least 37 targets this season. Brandon Aiyuk is the only one of the bunch who has yet to score a touchdown.
If we pull back the curtain a little further, we can see just how due Aiyuk is for a tuddy -- 33 players have drawn at least 33 targets this season, and those players have accounted for a massive 73 touchdowns. Some of those players have scored as many as five touchdowns. The only ones to not score? George Pickens and Aiyuk.
On the season, Aiyuk has caught 21 of his 37 targets for 314 yards. He enjoys a team-leading 24.2% target share and 29.2% air yards share. He also owns a healthy 12.7-yard average depth of target (aDOT), averages 5.4 downfield targets, and amasses a 20.7% red zone target share and 35.7% end zone target share. Based on this volume, Aiyuk's access to good quarterback play, and the Niners' 26.5 implied team total, these +165 touchdown odds seem quite appealing.
George Kittle (ribs) has been limited in practice this week. He played through his injury on Sunday and could likely just be taking it easy on a shortened week, so we should probably expect him to play on Thursday. But in a world where Kittle can't go, 36.0% of the team's red zone targets would open up.
The Seahawks have some key defensive injuries to speak of as Derick Hall, Byron Murphy II, and Riq Woolen have all not practiced this week while Julian Love has been limited. Woolen (ankle) has the ninth-best cornerback grade in the NFL (per PFF) and left Sunday's game with an injury. He's at risk of missing this one given the shortened week.
Aiyuk's role is too voluminous for him to not score soon, so I'll bet on regression to strike Thursday night.
Jordan Mason Over 17.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
The 49ers have been great at dominating the clock this year. The Seahawks? Not so much. San Francisco is averaging a league-leading 34:17 time of possession (excluding OT) while Seattle is averaging just 28:36 minutes (eighth-lowest).
The Niners are favored by 3.5 points and have -176 odds (63.7% implied probability) on their moneyline. Drawn-out possessions and a potential positive game script put Jordan Mason's rushing volume in a good position, so let's look for him to exceed 17.5 rush attempts on Thursday.
Here's how Mason's rushing volume has looked through five games: 28, 20, 19, 24, and 14 carries. So, he's exceeded 17.5 rush attempts handily in all but one game and is averaging 21.0 carries per game.
The lone instance where Mason failed to exceed this line came last week versus the Arizona Cardinals. In that one, Mason was limited to just five carries in the second half after two interceptions and a fumble kept San Francisco's offense off the field. The Cardinals were also working their way to a comeback, forcing the Niners into a negative game script for the little time they were on the field. If things hadn't hit the fan, Mason would have likely glided to his fifth straight game of over 17.5 carries.
This seems to be a pretty forgiving line for Mason, so I'll take the over.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.