3 Best Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football: Colts at Vikings
Does anyone know if anything interesting happened with the Indianapolis Colts this week?
Unless you live under a rock, you probably heard Indianapolis is moving away from Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco starting in this week's primetime showdown with the Minnesota Vikings. They're hoping to make a playoff push with the veteran who went 2-1 in significant game action earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is looking to regain the momentum that had them 5-0 to begin the year. A short-week loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 set up a mini-bye into what is surely going to be a raucous environment with plenty of clapping above heads.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Sunday night game.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Sunday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets
Aaron Jones Over 74.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (-135)
As mentioned in my Colts-Vikings best bets, I am pretty keen on Minnesota leading and winning this game. If that's the case, it'll mean plenty of Aaron Jones.
Jones has gone from a platoon with the Green Bay Packers to the largest game-to-game role of his career. He's logged 63.2% of Minnesota's total snaps, earning 22.0 adjusted opportunities per game. That's only heightened in recent weeks; he shouldered an NFL-high 92.0% of the snaps at running back in Week 9.
Though the Colts are numberFire's third-best schedule-adjusted rush defense from an efficiency standpoint, they've surrendered 151.9 rushing yards per game, which is third-most in the NFL. Joe Mixon just chunked them for 102 yards on 25 carries in a similar role to Jones.
Our Week 9 NFL projections are in love with Jones' prospects in Sunday night's game. They're projecting him for 79.2 yards on 16.6 carries, scoring 0.85 total touchdowns. That forecast for scores would merit closer to -134 odds for a touchdown, so I'm tacking on #33 to find the end zone -- especially considering the Colts have allowed seven rushing scores in eight games.
Joe Flacco Under 238.5 Passing Yards (-113)
This line matches general sentiment about the switch to Joe Flacco, which is that he's a cure-all solution for the Colts at quarterback.
That wasn't really the case.
Flacco did light it up in a shootout with nF's very worst schedule-adjusted pass D. He posted 359 yards on the Jacksonville Jaguars. In his other two games, the veteran didn't cross 200 yards passing. For any disclaimer about the Pittsburgh Steelers or Tennessee Titans secondaries, the Vikes would fit right in -- and then some. They're ranked higher than both of those squads as the league's ninth-best pass defense.
This was also without Jonathan Taylor, who is seventh in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per game (16.8). Indy might be inclined to lean more on Taylor to slow down the pace of this game and protect their own defense, which is numberFire's 16th-ranked unit when adjusting for schedule.
On the road and likely without entirely full preparation, this assignment is tough, and our projection for Flacco agrees. Expecting just 222.6 passing yards at a median, we'd set odds closer to -419 for this under. It's an uncomfortable one to take when expecting him to face a negative script, but the mark seems quite high.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.