3 Best Offensive Rookie of the Year Bets for the 2024 Season

NFL awards can regularly provide excellent value due to the unpredictability for most markets. This is especially true for the Rookie of the Year award -- both offensive and defensive.

Before the season starts, we don't have much on each rookie's role. Sure, we may know if they are tracking to start, but will the lights be too bright? Bryce Young entered the 2023 campaign as the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) but fell way short with a weak campaign.

After C.J. Stroud took home the hardware in 2023, quarterbacks and wide receivers have gone back and forth for the award over the previous five seasons; wideouts won two while QBs snagged three during the span.

When looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, quarterbacks and receivers are gearing up to compete for the award once again with 12 of the 13 shortest lines carried by the two positions.

Three candidates stand out as the players to beat. Caleb Williams -- the No. 1 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft -- is the favorite to win the award (+135) followed by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jayden Daniels each carrying +650 odds. The next-shortest line takes a big fall off to +1600.

With that said, which rookies could be providing the best value ahead of the 2024 season? Let's circle the three best bets for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (+650)

Let's start with the favorite to win OROY among receivers. Marvin Harrison Jr. was the first wideout selected as the fourth pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. "Generational prospect" was tossed around during his time with the Ohio State Buckeyes, where he totaled over 1,200 receiving yards while recording 14 receiving touchdowns over his last two seasons.

Harrison ended up in perhaps the best possible situation among the teams with top-five picks in the draft. The Arizona Cardinals' wide receiver room is wide open, giving MHJ an excellent opportunity to immediately become the alpha dog.

A huge workload from day one is perhaps Harrison's biggest support for winning this award. Arizona's leading wide receiver Marquise Brown joined the Kansas City Chiefs in the offseason, leaving Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch as the holdovers.

Wilson had a solid rookie season with 565 receiving yards and 14.9 yards per catch, but his advanced stats were nothing special. For example, Wilson finished 41st in expected points added (EPA), per PlayerProfiler.

Dortch isn't much of a threat at all, for he has never reached 500 receiving yards over his four-season career.

The main threat to Harrison's work will be tight end Trey McBride, who led the team with 81 receptions, 106 targets, and 825 receiving yards in 2023. He will likely be a huge part of this offense once again.

Still, Harrison is tracking for huge rookie numbers. FanDuel Research's season-long fantasy football projections have Harrison finishing with 150 targets, 97 receptions, 1,222 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns. This assumes that Harrison plays in all 17 games, giving him 8.8 targets, 5.7 catches, 71.9 receiving yards, and 0.4 receiving touchdowns per game.

Let's put these numbers into context; this projected receiving mark would give Harrison the ninth-most receiving yards for a rookie season in NFL history.

The OROY award was established in 1967. Among the six players who finished in the top eight of rookie receiving yards while the award existed, five of the players went on to win OROY. The only exception was Puka Nacua, who broke Bill Groman's rookie record in 2023. However, Nacua came up short for the award due to an exceptional season from a QB.

While Harrison has the potential to have one of the best rookie wideout seasons ever -- especially with a quality QB in Kyler Murray -- will his numbers be good enough to beat out a QB for the hardware?

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (+650)

As previously mentioned, Caleb Williams is the clear-cut favorite to win OROY in 2024. It makes sense as the Chicago Bears have surrounded the rookie with talent, including a receiving corps made up of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. Then add the fact that Williams was regarded as one of the best signal-caller prospects of this generation.

Of course, he's the favorite, but the +135 odds might not be worth the risk considering the unpredictable nature of season-long awards.

Instead of Williams, Jayden Daniels at +650 looks like the QB to back. Maybe we will get a repeat of last season with the QB carrying the second-shortest line to win OROY reigning supreme.

Daniels certainly has the upside. His supporting cast on the Washington Commanders doesn't quite stack up to Williams' situation, but throwing to Terry McLaurin and running back Austin Ekeler out of the backfield isn't too bad. This is still a much better spot than most top QB picks, such as Young's weak receiving group with the Carolina Panthers.

The 2023 Heisman winner showed he's more than capable of carrying an offense with the LSU Tigers, totaling 3,812 passing yards, 1,134 rushing yards, and 50 total touchdowns last season. Daniels constantly delivered absurd performances, such as 606 total yards and 5 touchdowns against Florida last season -- in which he became the first QB to have at least 350 passing yards and 200 rushing yards in a single game in FBS history.

As you've probably noticed by now, Daniels is an electric dual-threat QB, giving him a wrinkle that Williams simply cannot match. Daniels is the only player in FBS history with at least 12,000 career passing yards and 3,000 career rushing yards.

Scouting reports highlighted Daniels' game-breaking ability, and he was even awarded with the highest passing grade (99.2) and adjusted completion percentage on 20-plus-yard throws (69.1%) by Pro Football Focus (PFF) across college football last season. Keep in mind Daniels did this with the fifth-most deep throws in college football. He is much more than a scrambler.

Projected stats have this pretty close between Daniels and Williams, as well. Washington's QB is tracking for 229.4 passing yards, 39.6 rushing yards, and 1.5 total touchdowns per contest. Meanwhile, Williams is tracking for 245.0 passing yards, 17.7 rushing yards, and 1.8 total touchdowns per game.

Taking Daniels at +650 feels like the much better bet. His legs stand out as a difference-maker, and his projected passing stats aren't that far behind Williams. Winning could be Daniels' biggest challenge as FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win total odds give the Commanders a 6.5 total while the Bears have a 8.5 total, giving Williams a slight edge.

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (+3000)

Two of our bets are among the top three favorites, but what about a longshot? No one is out of the cards in the OROY race, especially with many roles unclear, and the regular season still over a month away. Remember, Nacua was carrying odds well over +3000 prior to the 2023 season.

Keon Coleman of the Buffalo Bills is a name to watch. First off, Coleman fits our mold of taking a QB or receiver. Plus, he's in an excellent spot with Buffalo.

The Bills made a huge move in the offseason, trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans. Gabriel Davis also left in free agency. Dalton Kincaid (673 receiving yards in 2023) and Khalil Shakir (611 receiving yards in 2023) are the notable holdovers from last season. Curtis Samuel was also added, but he has reached 700 receiving yards only once over his seven-year career.

Enter Coleman from the Florida State Seminoles. Buffalo invested their top pick into Coleman, which was the first selection of the second round (33rd overall). Coleman is firmly tracking for a starting spot and possesses a skill set that this corps needs -- a big body that can win contested balls.

He's drawn glowing reviews early in training camp, mostly thanks to his ability to make difficult catches.

His projected stats haven't moved much in reaction to early camp reviews. Coleman is still tracking for only 4.5 targets, 33.5 receiving yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game.

There's still plenty of risk involved with Coleman as his projected stats suggest. Some of these numbers seem a bit too harsh, such as his touchdowns. Coleman excels at winning 50-50 balls and totaled 18 touchdowns over his final two seasons in college. The Bills scored the sixth-most points per game (PPG) last season. We could see plenty of scoring from Coleman.

Overall, the potential for Coleman is sky-high with one of the game's best quarterbacks -- Josh Allen -- dealing the ball. Allen has +800 odds to win the MVP award (second-shortest odds). His go-to target is gone, giving Coleman a huge opportunity.

Diggs put up over 1,100 receiving yards in all four seasons in Buffalo. The Bills have been in the top half of passing attempts per game for four consecutive seasons. If Coleman emerges, watch out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.