3 Best NHL Bets and Predictions for Monday 3/17/25

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins

Sabres Moneyline (-110)

This betting line is an indictment of the Boston Bruins. The Bs enter Monday’s showdown against the perennial basement-dwelling Buffalo Sabres priced as a pick’em. Sadly, it’s still overestimating the Bruins’ chances of walking away victorious.

Boston was pulverized last time out. The Bruins put together one of the worst performances in the NHL this season, producing a pathetic 14.9% expected goals-for rating. They gave up 34 scoring and 18 high-danger chances while churning out just 11 and 4, respectively. That boosts their two-game total up to 25 scoring and 10 high-danger opportunities, which would be an adequate one-game total.

Keep an eye on what the Sabres are doing. Buffalo has outplayed its opponents in two of three and four of its past seven, a stretch that only includes two wins. Altogether, their goals-for rating of 38.2% across the seven-game sample is more than 12 points shy of their expected mark of 50.3%. That makes the Sabres natural progression candidates as actual metrics balance with what is expected.

These teams are heading in opposite directions. On that basis, we can’t overlook the value of the Sabres against a struggling Bruins squad.

Calgary Flames vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Under 5.5 (+100)

It’s time to recalibrate expectations for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Head coach Craig Berube earned a reputation for playoff success. But at this rate, the Leafs might not even find themselves in that position at the end of the regular season. Goals have been scarce, and that’s unlikely to change in Monday’s tilt versus the Calgary Flames.

For years, Toronto was the leading analytics team in the league. Berube’s new systems have eroded every bit of that reputation. Since February 25, the Leafs have the worst expected goals-for rating in the NHL. Sadly, they are overachieving offensively. Toronto has 18 goals at five-on-five across that sample, above their expected tally of 14.2.

Calgary is making the most of their development, but they remain an ineffective threat in the offensive zone. The Flames have eclipsed nine high-danger chances just once over their last 14 games. Predictably, that’s yielded underwhelming scoring more recently. They have just nine goals at five-on-five across their previous eight games.

The Leafs aren’t adapting to Berube’s systems. Despite their limited offensive success, they’re still regression candidates. That fits the Flames’ preferred game script, as they play a defense-first brand of hockey. The result should be a low-scoring game in Toronto.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Minnesota Wild

Wild Moneyline (+126)

The Minnesota Wild are comfortably in a playoff spot, but a top-three spot in the Central Division is within reach. They can make up ground in that pursuit with two big points against the Los Angeles Kings.

Thankfully, the Wild are progression candidates. Over the last couple of weeks, Minnesota has tragically underperformed its metrics. They have just five goals at five-on-five, operating more than seven goals below expected. Not surprisingly, that correlates with nearly a 17-point dip between expected and actual goals-for ratings.

The Kings are entering at an offensive deficit in this one. The Pacific Division contenders have accumulated just 20 high-danger chances across their last three games, resulting in just three goals at five-on-five and eight across all strengths. We’re not anticipating any meaningful growth in production or output as they try to break through the Wild’s stout defensive structure.

Assuredly, the under is worth a gander in this one, but we can’t overlook the value in the underdog home side. The Wild can make up some of the ground they’ve given up over the past couple of weeks.

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