3 Best NFL Win Total Over/Under Bets for 2025

It's August. Optimism abounds in the NFL.

Unless training camp truly sucked, most fanbases are feeling peachy heading into the year. That may entice them to pull open their FanDuel Sportsbook app and bet a win total over before Week 1.

Unfortunately, reality lurks just around the corner.

Due to that optimism, often the best value in betting win totals is going to lie in the under. In addition to just general underperformance, unders can also hit due to injuries at key positions. There are multiple paths to despair and just one to glory.

When I look at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, most of the value lies in plugging unders on teams that enter the year with hope. Maybe that hope is well-founded, and I'll look like a moron; it happens often enough.

Still, as I scan the board, these are my three favorite win total bets for 2025.

Best NFL Win Total Betting Picks

Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-110)

As has been documented ad nauseam, Mike Tomlin has never finished with a below-.500 record as the Pittsburgh Steelers' head coach. Barring a tie, this bet would need that trend to end in order to hit.

I still just can't see a clear path to nine wins.

The case for the over centers around a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' defense returning to form. But Rodgers finished last year ranked 24th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 200 drop backs. He was one spot ahead of Mac Jones and three ahead of Mason Rudolph, neither of whom will be starters this year.

Rodgers could surge behind an offensive line with upside. But it's still an unproven unit, and this is Rodgers' age-42 season. It's a tough bet to make.

Even with a respectable projection for the Steelers' passing efficiency, my win total model has them at 7.18 wins this year, making under 8.5 a value. My respect for Tomlin as a coach is what keeps me from taking the alt under 7.5 at +160.

Bears Under 7.5 Wins (+110)

I'd love to be wrong here because the NFL would be way more fun if Caleb Williams is as good as advertised. I also generally like Ben Johnson, so this is a team I want to root for.

I just can't get the data to support the Chicago Bears' win total sitting around .500.

A big chunk of that is the schedule. The Bears have the second-toughest schedule, according to my numbers, trailing only the New York Giants. Against a neutral schedule, they'd be expected to win 0.75 more games than what I currently have them down for, showing just how tough the road is in the NFC North.

That schedule does include home games against the Giants, New Orleans Saints, and Cleveland Browns, all of which provide quality win odds for the Bears. But they have to face a murderers' row of quarterbacks on the road that'll be tough to overcome even if Williams pans out.

There has been some optimism for the Bears. The odds on them to go over 8.5 wins had lengthened to +135 from +115 in May, but they're now back down to +125. A couple good preseason games can do that. I just want to see it in a real environment before I truly buy into this team, especially when you consider the teams they'll have to knock off.

Patriots Under 7.5 Wins (+135)

The New England Patriots have tried their hardest to surround Drake Maye with a better environment than he had as a rookie. I commend them for their intentions.

I just don't know if it'll be enough for 2025 to be the year they make the leap.

It was a bad year to be in the market to prop up a young quarterback. The free agent receiver landscape was barren. The Patriots tried to lure Chris Godwin from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which would have been a needle-mover.

Instead, they added Stefon Diggs. Although Diggs has been healthy all of camp, he's still a nearly 32-year-old receiver whose metrics have declined in recent seasons. Here's his yards per route run (YPRR) and average depth of target (aDOT) data, according to Next Gen Stats.

While Diggs' YPRR was good last year, he did that by living near the line of scrimmage. That's Demario Douglas' territory, meaning the Patriots still don't have a proven field-stretcher to exploit Maye's quality arm strength.

Maye played well last year, and Mike Vrabel has a track record of winning games with rosters lacking talent. That could be a lethal combo. I just don't think the there's enough juice on this roster yet to justify the enthusiasm.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.