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3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

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3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 7

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 7

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (+165)

Yesterday, we noted Tyler Lockett as a Week 7 sleeper pick and called out his +250 touchdown odds. Lockett's touchdown odds have since plummeted to +165, identical to his teammate, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

While I still am interested in Lockett as a buy-low option in DFS, I'd prefer JSN's touchdown prop at the same odds, and he has a great scoring outlook for Sunday.

The Seattle Seahawks will visit the Atlanta Falcons for a game that's showing a close spread (3.0) in favor of Atlanta and the week's second-highest total (tied; 50.5). Seattle leads the NFL in passing yards and passing rate over expectation. Add in a 24.5 implied team total, a matchup against a Falcons schedule-adjusted pass defense that ranks just 18th (per numberFire), and the potential for a negative game script, and this sets up to be another pass-heavy week for the 'Hawks.

Smith-Njigba enjoys a 20.3% target share, 26.9% red zone target share, and 38.5% end zone target share. His red zone and end zone market shares lead the team by a significant margin.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

His potential usage in this game environment is encouraging enough, and PFF also notes his matchup against Atlanta's Dee Alford as one of the best WR/CB to exploit in Week 7.

On top of all that, JSN is due for scoring regression. He's logged 49 targets (10th-most in NFL) this season but that's amounted to just one touchdown. JSN is the only player in the league to earn this many targets yet have just one score. For further context, 25 players across the league have drawn at least 42 targets, and 20 of those players have scored a minimum of two tuddys. JSN is my favorite touchdown pick of the week.

Terry McLaurin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Washington Commanders are expected to lay down the hammer when they host the Carolina Panthers this weekend.

Washington ranks first in schedule-adjusted offense and second in schedule-adjusted passing offense while Carolina's schedule-adjusted pass defense is the fourth-worst in the league. In turn, the Commanders own a 30.5 implied team total, good for the highest in Week 7.

Terry McLaurin's market shares are awesome, so let's look for him to connect with Jayden Daniels for over 63.5 receiving yards.

Terry McLaurin - Receiving Yds

Terry McLaurin Over
Oct 20 8:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

McLaurin comes in with a team-leading 26.1% target share, 51.9% air yards share, 14.6 aDOT, and averages 3.8 downfield targets per game. That 51.9% air yards share through six games is a bit preposterous and could allow him to clean up in this matchup, which will be the easiest one to date.

While McLaurin has yet to face a pass defense as poor as Carolina's, he has faced four teams that rank in the bottom 13 of schedule-adjusted pass defense. In this split, he earned at least 100 yards in two out of four games and has averaged 79.3 receiving yards.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 75.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-113)

The lethal NFC North will lock horns this week as the undefeated Minnesota Vikings host the Detroit Lions. Minnesota is favored by just 1.5 points and the over/under comes in at 50.5, so we should be in for a boisterous, high-scoring affair.

The Lions will need to play to their strengths -- and Minnesota's weak spots -- in this one, so I'm expecting Jahmyr Gibbs to be heavily involved.

Gibbs is averaging a team-leading 0.48 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) and is contributing 0.27 net expected points added per rush attempt, which leads all eligible running backs in the NFL. He also handles a 12.2% target share, the third-highest on the team.

Jahmyr Gibbs - Rushing + Receiving Yds

Jahmyr Gibbs Over
Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Gibbs' rushing efficiency and volume in the passing game has allowed him to log a minimum of 74 total yards through five games. He's averaging 90.4 yards from scrimmage and has earned at least 78 total yards in all but one game.

Minnesota touts the top-ranked schedule-adjusted defense, but they are letting up the fifth-most targets to opposing running backs, which speaks to Gibbs' potential volume in the passing game. The Lions rank second in net expected points added per rush attempt, so we should continue to see them push what's working.


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Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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