3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 6
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Prop Picks for Week 6
Dalton Schultz Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Dalton Schultz hasn't posted more than 34 receiving yards in a game this season, so I'm not going to get too in over my head here, but with Nico Collins (hamstring) on the injured reserve, this line might be set too low for Schultz.
In Week 4, Schultz caught three of his five targets for 34 yards. Then last Sunday, he caught four of his six targets for another 34 yards. Collins leaves behind a massive 24.7% target share and 44.6% air yards share. His absence should benefit a few different pass catchers on the Houston Texans, and Schultz has a great track record when one of Houston's top wideouts are sidelined.
Last season, Schultz averaged 6.8 targets and 48.2 receiving yards in five games without Tank Dell. He reeled in at least 42 yards in all but one of these games. Schultz also played two games sans Collins in 2023, resulting in 71 and 58 yards.
The opposing New England Patriots are surrendering the 13th-most targets and 8th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. Our NFL projections expect Schultz to log 40.98 receiving yards in this one, which seems like a super fair assessment given the matchup and Collins' injury.
Marvin Harrison Jr. 70+ Receiving Yards (+146)
Marvin Harrison Jr. has had back-to-back weeks of low yardage output. Is Week 6 an opportunity to back Marv in a buy-low spot?
He's earned a 25.0% target share, 43% air yards share, and 4.6 downfield targets per game this season. Do his long targets make his output a bit volatile? Sure. But that also means he can cash in on 70-plus yards in as few as two or three catches.
This matchup against the Green Bay Packers sets up to be a potential shootout -- another reason why I'm keen on backing the rookie. The Packers are favored by 5.5 points in a game that features a 47.5 over/under. That spread isn't super tight, but it does indicate that the Arizona Cardinals will be forced into a negative game script, which further builds our case for Marv.
Jordan Love and the Packers like to sling it, so we shouldn't be surprised to see the Cardinals attempt to match them in the air, and Harrison is their guy in that scenario. In Week 2, Harrison bursted for 130 yards and two touchdowns. We would have never been able to get this prop at +146 odds in the aftermath of that game, and since Harrison's market shares have remained awesome and he's in for an advantageous matchup, I feel confident qualifying this as a buy-low spot.
Our projections expect Harrison Jr. to log 70.5 receiving yards on Sunday.
Zay Flowers Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Week 6 is a weird one for running backs in that many of them are hurt and carry unknown statuses as of this writing. Luckily, there are some pretty intriguing lines out there for wideouts, and Zay Flowers is definitely drawing my attention.
Flowers enjoys a 27.1% target share, 30.0% air yards share, and averages 3.6 downfield targets per game. The Baltimore Ravens own a slate-high 29.5 implied team total in their matchup against the Washington Commanders. In turn, 54.5 receiving yards seems like a fairly low bar for Flowers.
The Commanders are numberFire's 28th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. They're letting up the 10th-most targets and 11th-most receiving yards to WRs per game. Flowers' matchup versus Washington's Mike Sainristil is considered one of the best WR/CB matchups to exploit this week, per PFF.
Flowers is off the heels of an 111-yard game, yet the market is still taming their expectations, even with an awesome matchup and Baltimore's offense set for the rowdiest week of all.
Our projections forecast Flowers to reel in 62.57 yards versus Washington. I'll side with Flowers' over in one of the more highly-anticipated Week 6 matchups.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.