3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 18

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 18

Justin Jefferson Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-120)

The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings are saving Week 18. Not only is the NFC North title and the one seed up for grabs, but we've also got an awesome environment for player props -- including a close spread (2.5), monstrous over/under (56.5), and indoor conditions.

Justin Jefferson and his team-leading 30.1% target share and 38.3% air yards share figure to play a big role in this contest. My favorite way to bet on JJettas is longest reception over 28.5 yards.

Jefferson has a catch of 29-plus yards in 50.0% of his games this season. These -120 odds imply a 54.5% probability -- higher than his hit rate at this line. However, JJ has notched a 27-plus yard reception in 75.0% of contests, so he's been right there on a very consistent basis.

The outlook for this prop becomes all the more intriguing when considering Detroit's defensive injuries.

The Lions have three corners out on injured reserve, including Carlton Davis III. A depleted secondary could give way to a big play from Jefferson, something he has become accustomed to doing against the Lions. Here's a look at Jefferson's longest receptions in his past four games against Detroit: 25, 38, 29, and 47 yards. I like him to notch another big play on Sunday night.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 124.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115)

I don't see any reason to shy away from the game of the year, especially when it comes to Jahmyr Gibbs.

In Week 16 -- Gibbs' first full game without David Montgomery -- he amassed 154 total yards on a 69.2% snap rate. He followed that up with a 163-yard outing in Week 17 despite playing just 52.2% of the snaps. I'm willing to bet that snap rate balloons on Sunday night. With a win, the Lions would be gifted a bye and home-field advantage for the playoffs. As regular-season games go, it doesn't get any bigger than this, and we should expect Gibbs' workload to reflect that.

We haven't had to worry about Gibbs' efficiency. He's netting 5.6 yards per carry this season and turned 18 carries into 111 yards (6.5 yards per carry) just last week. Gibbs is also averaging 5.5 targets across his last four and touts a 13.9% target share in that span.

In a Week 7 game versus Minnesota, Gibbs handled 15 carries for 116 yards and caught all four of his targets for 44 yards -- good for 160 scrimmage yards. He did all that despite being limited to 60.0% of the snaps, with Montgomery taking 36.4% of the snaps in that one. Gibbs is primed for another yardage outburst in this Sunday's showdown.

Jaylen Warren Over 65.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet up on Saturday night, and there's something at stake for both sides.

The Bengals need to win -- and have the Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos lose on Sunday -- in order to punch a ticket to the playoffs. The Steelers have already clinched a playoff berth and will slide into a Wild Card spot in the likely event that the Baltimore Ravens (19.5-point favorite) win earlier in the afternoon. Even if the Ravens win the AFC North before this kickoff, the Steelers still have motivation to win on Saturday, as a win would pit them against the Houston Texans in the playoffs.

With that, I'm expecting their starters to be a full-go, putting Jaylen Warren in a great spot to clear his rushing plus receiving line.

Warren is fresh off a 112-yard game and went for 92 total yards the week before that. Since Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye, he's exceeded 65.5 scrimmage yards in 62.5% of games (five of eight contests). In that same span, Warren has gone for at least 64 yards at an 87.5% clip (seven of eight). He's been right there in just about every game since their bye.

Warren has out-snapped Najee Harris in four straight games. He also touts a 17.0% target share in that span. To add, he'll be facing a soft defense in the Bengals. Cincinnati comes in with the 26th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense, checking in 17th against the pass and 26th against the run. Simply put, I think this line is set too low for Warren.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.