3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Rams at 49ers
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out as the Los Angeles Rams take on the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Picks
George Kittle Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
In a season of ups and downs, George Kittle has been San Francisco's only constant. This is do or die time for the Niners, who will likely need to win out and then some to reach the postseason. Tonight's date with the Rams, who tout +160 NFC West odds to SF's +2000, could get them one step closer. I expect Kittle to be heavily involved.
On the season, Kittle is running 73.9% of the routes and enjoying a 21.7% target share. In two full games without both Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey, Kittle saw a 25.5% target share. He notched 128 and 151 receiving yards in those contests.
Kittle has logged 57-plus receiving yards in 8 out of 11 games (72.7% of contests) this season. Notably, he's notched 57-plus in seven of his last eight. He's exceeded 58.5 yards in 54.5% of games. These -113 odds imply only a 53.1% probability, and we've yet to even mention that Kittle has a bad defense waiting on the other side of the field.
George Kittle - Receiving Yds
The Rams come in with a 28th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense and let up the 13th-most yards per game to tight ends. This contest is showing a close spread (3.0) in favor of the 49ers and a high over/under (49.5), so Kittle will be in for a great game environment, too. Our NFL projections have him down to log 63.5 yards in this one.
Kyren Williams Over 72.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Kyren Williams has logged a minimum of 62 rushing yards across his last 11 games. He's averaging 85.3 yards in this span and notched at least 72 yards in 9 of those 11 games (81.8% of contests).
His hit rate at this line compared to the 53.1% implied probability on these -113 odds is drastic. Add in a soft matchup against SF's meh rush D, and it's easy to like Kyren's outlook tonight.
Kyren Williams - Rushing Yds
The Niners struggle with the fifth-worst schedule-adjusted rush defense in the NFL. They're surrendering the 11th-most carries and 4.01 yards per rush attempt to opposing backs. In Week 3, they allowed Williams to burst for 89 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Plus, Kyren notched 94 and 104 yards in his last two contests opposite bottom-10 rush defenses.
Worse, San Francisco could be without Nick Bosa (hip, oblique), who has missed three straight games and has not practiced this week. Our projections expect Williams to net 79.1 yards against the 49ers.
Puka Nacua Over 7.5 Receptions (+116) / Puka Nacua Anytime Touchdown (+125)
Can Los Angeles' catch machine do it again?
In Week 14, Puka Nacua hauled in 12 of his 14 targets for 162 yards. He's caught at least seven passes in five out of seven games since returning from a knee injury and logged at least nine receptions in three of those games.
Nacua is handling a massive 36.7% target share across his last five games, while his muted 8.2 aDOT (average depth of target) and 36.4% air yards share has me homed in one his receptions prop in lieu of his yardage prop.
Puka Nacua - Total Receptions
While we're at it, let's look for one of Nacua's receptions to end in a touchdown celebration. In that aforementioned five-game span, Nacua is dominating an unreal 42.9% red zone target share. The 49ers are ceding a whopping 72.1% red zone scoring percentage to opponents (second highest in the NFL), so Nacua is in a great spot to capitalize on one of his many red zone looks.
Despite scoring in three of his last four, Nacua could still be due for touchdown regression. He's posted just a 4.0% touchdown rate (3 TDs on 75 targets) this season and a high total and close spread could help him thrive on Thursday.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.