3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Chargers

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Denver Broncos take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Picks

Courtland Sutton Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Dating back to Week 8, Courtland Sutton has been the clear No. 1 option in Denver's passing attack, logging a 28.6% target share and 47.6% air yards share across the past seven games. During this stretch, he's averaged 5.1 downfield targets (10+ air yards) per game, giving him ample opportunities for chunk plays on a regular basis.

While Sutton accumulated just 32 receiving yards in Week 15, that had more to do with Bo Nix uncharacteristically throwing for just 130 yards (and 3 interceptions) in windy conditions. But the key takeaway is that Sutton still led the team with 9 targets (28.1% share), so his usage was still on point.

Prior to that outing, Courtland had logged at least 70 receiving yards in six straight weeks.

This isn't necessarily a plus matchup against a Chargers team that ranks seventh in schedule-adjusted pass defense, but L.A. could be missing some key defensive players, and they just got carved up by Baker Mayfield in a game where lead wideout Mike Evans caught 9-of-11 targets for 159 yards and 2 TDs.

Our NFL projections peg Sutton for a game-high 64.2 receiving yards and 8.6 targets.

Bo Nix Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

If Nix taps into his rushing potential, he should clear this bar without much issue. The question is more whether he'll do so.

The rookie QB rushed 8 times for 23 yards last week, but prior to that he went four straight weeks with 3 or fewer carries, failing to exceed 5 rushing yards in any of those games. Whether by design or simply due to Nix getting more comfortable as an NFL passer, he simply hasn't been using his legs as often as he did early on.

But his willingness to run in Week 15 is a sign that he'll still take advantage of his speed when the opportunity presents itself, and he's averaged 5.4 carries and 23.4 rushing yards per game overall. He's exceeded this line in 7 of 14 starts and has racked up 35 or more rushing yards in 5 of them.

Part of the reason for optimism is this particular matchup, too. Against quarterbacks, the Chargers rank 28th in rushing yards over expected per attempt and 26th in rush expected points added per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which has contributed to them giving up the 11th-most rushing yards to the position.

Even more encouraging, when the Broncos faced the Bolts in Week 6, Nix rushed 6 times for 61 yards, sailing over tonight's line.

Our model is also on board, projecting Bo for 27.5 rushing yards.

Gus Edwards Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

This low number gives me pause, but Gus Edwards has gone over this mark (barely) just once in three games since J.K. Dobbins got hurt, and this is a brutal matchup against Denver.

The Broncos have allowed the league's sixth-fewest rushing yards, and that's backed up by ranking inside the top six defensively in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, rushing success rate, and rush expected points added per carry. numberFire also ranks Denver as the NFL's second-best adjusted rush defense.

Further, Edwards might even be getting phased out of lead back duties after seeing his snap rate decline over three straight weeks (53.3%, 43.9%, and 27.1%), and he's been out-snapped by Kimani Vidal over the last two games. While that could be due in part to recent negative game scripts -- Edwards has logged only three targets all season -- he saw a modest 32.0% first half snap rate last week (compared to 64.0% for Vidal) despite the Chargers being down by only 4 points at halftime. Plus, while L.A. is a 2.5-point home favorite, it isn't outlandish to see a scenario where the Broncos get out to an early lead, which could swiftly push Edwards to the bench.

L.A. might be wise to give more carries to Vidal, too. He's averaged 0.05 rushing yards over expected per carry across the last three games, whereas Edwards has been at an ugly -0.30.

Again, this isn't a lofty total for Edwards to reach, but there are enough red flags to expect another dud from him, which leads me to taking the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.