3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football: Chargers at Chiefs

The AFC West is better than anyone could have predicted, but it's just about all over if the home team wins this primetime matchup.

The 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs are poised to snatch the top overall seed in AFC and can put the 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers to bed with a home win on Sunday -- especially since they've already beaten L.A. in their building.

There's a tight 3.5-point spread in this one as the Bolts' four defeats have come by a combined 19 points. Will the Chargers keep the division alive, or will the Chiefs take another massive step toward a three-peat?

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Chargers take on the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday Night Football Best Player Prop Picks

Travis Kelce Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

While the Chiefs are still dialing up looks for Travis Kelce, his yardage upside is still significant lacking.

Kelce has seen 10.6 targets per game over K.C.'s last five contests, but it's only translated to 60.4 receiving yards per game in them.

Still above this mark, what's the problem? It should only get worse from here. Coincidentally, Kelce has faced 4 of the top-10 matchups for tight ends in terms of receiving yards allowed per game over the past five weeks. The Chargers are 20th in that regard (45.5).

Our Week 14 NFL DFS projections expect just 53.2 median yards for Kelce in this matchup, meaning we'd set this under closer to -137.

Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (-114)

Though Cris Collinsworth will be at the ready to come to his defense, Patrick Mahomes is probably going to throw an interception on Sunday.

Mahomes has thrown a pick in 8 of 12 games this season, but the market might be undervaluing his propensity for turnovers when he's faced a similar recent string of friendly matchups as Kelce. He's also had four straight games with a turnover-worthy play, per Pro Football Focus, so it's more been "bullet dodging" than "mistake-free football".

Los Angeles is numberFire's sixth-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense, so we're not playing the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders anymore. One of the reasons why they rank so highly are 13 interceptions this season, which are tied for fourth-most in the NFL.

FanDuel Research is projecting Mahomes for 0.69 interceptions in this matchup at a median. This is a buy-low spot on recent soft matchups when, in reality, Mahomes is still putting the ball in harm's way.

Will Dissly Over 35.5 Receving Yards (-114)

To the fellow members of the "Dissly Division", our time has come.

Will Dissly had a few pop games for the Seattle Seahawks, but he's gotten a full chance at tight end for the Bolts recently. Over the last five weeks, Dissly has run 58.7% of L.A.'s routes and earned 4.0 targets per game. That's a modest 14.6% of the team's looks when they haven't had to be extremely pass-heavy in recent weeks.

His matchup is nearly as good as it gets to produce -- especially with Ladd McConkey (knee) clearly not at 100% after another mid-game exit last week. Kansas City allows the third-most targets, most receiving yards, and most yards per route run (2.12) to the tight end position.

The Chiefs are also nF's fifth-ranked rush D, so I'm expecting Justin Herbert to be forced to sling the pill a bit in this one.

Dissly's 11.1 yards per reception in this recent stretch is quite high as he's usually open on designed looks. I prefer just taking this line, which he could knock out with three receptions, than the over on his receptions line (3.5) at -146.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.