3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Bills at Falcons

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Buffalo Bills take on the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Best Player Prop Picks for Bills at Falcons on Monday Night Football

Michael Penix Jr. Anytime Touchdown (+700)

There's not a ton of value in this game's touchdown market when the high total (49.5) has plenty of folks expecting points. The usual suspects are also on touchdown streaks.

Bizarrely, I think Michael Penix Jr. is actually the most undervalued potential scorer in this game. The second-year quarterback doesn't use his legs often, but he's buried with anytime defensive scores, and that just doesn't seem accurate.

Penix has four red zone carries this year, which is a statistically significant share (9.1%) of Atlanta's looks. He scored a rushing TD in Week 1.

This injury-laden Bills defense has allowed the second-highest rushing success rate (72.0%) to opposing quarterbacks.

Part of the massive discount on odds here is that Penix and the Falcons rarely operate under center or utilize the QB sneak, but this line is too low. FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections don't exactly expect a rushing masterclass from Penix at 0.18 median rushing TDs, but that projection would normally imply closer to +507 odds for a score. There's value here.

James Cook Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Maybe it shouldn't be such a surprise that James Cook has had a monster 2025 after his new contract during the preseason.

Cook has handled 18.0 carries per game thus far, which is fifth-most in the NFL. That's especially impressive given Buffalo's individual margins of victory and Cook's so-so snap share (62.6%).

It's absolutely a workable matchup for Cook on Monday. Atlanta is numberFire's 25th-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense. The Falcons, though, are fourth against the pass in those same rankings, and they've allowed the fewest total targets to running backs (17). They're a clear run funnel.

Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite, and a competitive lead would be a perfect script for Jim Cook. Our projections are way higher on him than this line, expecting 89.3 rushing yards on 18.3 carries.

Keon Coleman Over 3.5 Receptions (+120)

It feels like we've been waiting for the Keon Coleman breakout game for weeks. This line is likely a bit too low.

Coleman still ran 22 routes last week compared to Khalil Shakir's 24, and this was despite a first-quarter benching. In the final three quarters, he was Buffalo's leading route-runner -- as has been the case all season.

The matchup seems to be softer for him than Shakir. In four games, the Falcons' opponent's top wide boundary wideout has averaged 4.3 receptions and 63.0 receiving yards per game despite half the contests being uncompetitive affairs with margins north of 20. If this one stays tight, Coleman could remain on the busier side of those averages.

Our projections have Coleman at 4.0 median receptions. If he's involved to the extent he was in Week 1 (24.4% target share), I prefer this plus-money mark with his receptions than a -114 prop on yardage. When the question is general involvement, both will likely cash or miss in unison.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.