3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Bills at Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Buffalo Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Conference Championship? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Best Player Prop Picks for Bills at Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-114)

What was seen as an inevitability before the 2024 campaign kicked off has become reality with the Chiefs playing in their seventh straight AFC Championship Game. While Kansas City's offense hasn't displayed much consistency or explosiveness throughout the year, this is a perfect chance for them to put the ball in Patrick Mahomes' hands and let him deliver another memorable postseason performance.

Despite Mahomes recording only 177 passing yards in the Divisional Round versus the Houston Texans, the Texans boast the third-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. Comparatively, the Bills are a bit of a pass-funnel D, ranking 21st in schedule-adjusted pass defense and 6th in schedule-adjusted run defense.

Besides Buffalo having a defense that is susceptible against the pass, they are also dealing with a few injuries in the secondary ahead of Sunday's much-anticipated matchup. Additionally, Kansas City's rushing attack has been largely inefficient this season, so there's no reason the Chiefs should try to waste early downs on running the ball.

It's also worth noting that Mahomes is averaging 279.6 passing yards per game across his 19 career starts in the playoffs. FanDuel Research's NFL projections have Mahomes logging 23.7 completions versus the Bills, and the All-Pro quarterback has thrown for 260-plus yards in 8 of his 11 starts this season where he had 23-plus completions.

James Cook Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

During the regular season, James Cook split the backfield workload for the Bills with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson, which limited Cook to 12.9 rushing attempts per game, 63.1 rushing yards per game, and a 48.0% snap rate, via NextGenStats. While Cook's snap rate is still at 49.6% through Buffalo's first two postseason games, they are leaning on him more in the ground game as he's posting 20.0 rushing attempts per game and 93.5 rushing yards per game through two rounds.

It's a bit cliche to say that one way to beat the Chiefs is to run the ball and keep Mahomes on the sideline, but it's a sound strategy. The Bills have the second-best schedule-adjusted rushing offense, and their offensive line is capable of dominating games and controlling the line of scrimmage.

On the other hand, the Chiefs are around league-average in schedule-adjusted run defense, ranking 16th in that department. In their Divisional Round win over Houston, Kansas City allowed Joe Mixon to register 88 rushing yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, which was the most yards per carry Mixon tallied in a game since Week 13.

Our projections have Cook easily clearing the over on his rushing yards, forecasting him to run for 68.7 yards. The Bills have given 14 rushing attempts to Cook in 9 of his 18 starts (including the playoffs) this season, and the dynamic back has scampered for 67-plus rushing yards in eight of those contests.

Xavier Worthy Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

There's no doubt that Travis Kelce is still Mahomes' go-to target whenever he is surveying the field. However, rookie Xavier Worthy has emerged as the No. 2 option in Kansas City's new-look aerial attack.

Although it's a fairly small sample, Worthy is logging the second-highest snap rate (70.5%), second-highest route rate (66.9%), and second-highest target share (21.7%) among Chiefs' skill players who have played in 50% of the snaps since Marquise Brown made his season debut in Week 16. On top of that, Worthy is notching the second-most receptions per game (5.0), second-most receiving yards per game (47.3), and second-most yards per route run (2.03) in Kansas City's offense during that span.

Even though Worthy had just 45 receiving yards in the Divisional Round, he still managed to catch 5 passes on 6 targets, giving him 6-plus targets in seven consecutive appearances. Taking Worthy to hit the over on his receiving yards also correlates with backing Mahomes to hit his passing yards prop as the signal-caller is going to need his pass-catchers to make plays to achieve the over on his line.

Aside from Worthy accruing 61 receiving yards on 4 catches in the Week 11 meeting against the Bills, Buffalo is allowing the third-highest catch over expected (+3.4%), sixth-most receptions (226), and 10th-most receiving yards (2,773) to wide receivers. FanDuel Research's projections have Worthy concluding Sunday's bout with 54.9 receiving yards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.