3 Best NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets for Texans at Chiefs

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Best Player Prop Picks for Texans at Chiefs

Marquise Brown Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Though the Chiefs are 8.5-point favorites against Houston on Saturday, this isn't a spot we should be fading KC pass-catchers. The two-time defending champs finished the regular season ranked second in PROE (pass rate over expectation) and third in adjusted pace. Patrick Mahomes attempted 41 passes when these sides faced off in Week 16, finishing with 260 passing yards.

Houston faced a league-average pass rate during the regular season, so we can reasonably expect more passing volume from the home favorites. Though Kansas City has several capable receivers, the over on Marquise Brown's 41.5-yard receiving prop is my preferred angle here.

Brown only appeared in two regular-season games after missing the majority of the year with an injury, but the Chiefs wasted no time getting him involved upon returning. Though Hollywood only played 34% of snaps across his two games, he was targeted on an outrageous 45.5% of his routes. For context, Puka Nacua led all qualified receivers with a 39.1% target-per-route rate in the regular season.

Now, we can't expect Hollywood to get targeted on nearly half of his routes going forward. But we can assume his route participation will climb, offsetting any potential dip in target share. He saw 7 and 8 targets across his two games, which serves as a reasonable benchmark for his playoff usage.

Those two games resulted in Brown notching 46 and 45 receiving yards -- the first of which came against this same Texans secondary he'll face on Saturday.

Houston's pass defense is solid, finishing fifth in numberFire's adjusted pass defense metric during the regular season. They were friendly to opposing wideouts, though, permitting the ninth-highest target rate and 12th-most receiving yards to the position.

That should alleviate any matchup concerns with Hollywood, putting him in a strong spot to go over 41.5 receiving yards.

Joe Mixon Under 78.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

With Houston headed to Arrowhead as 8.5-point underdogs, I'm skeptical we see them turn to the ground as often as they'd like. That's bad news for Texans running back Joe Mixon, and it makes the under on his rushing + receiving yards prop worth considering.

Mixon averaged 94.6 scrimmage yards per game during the regular season, and he totaled 119 in Houston's Wild Card win. But much of that regular season production came early in the year as we saw him tail off toward the end of the season. Over the Texans' final six regular-season games, Mixon only averaged 59.7 scrimmage yards, while his rushing success rate dipped to 31% (on par with Alexander Mattison and D'Andre Swift). He failed to crack 79 scrimmage yards in five of those six games.

That includes a 15-touch, 71-yard showing against the Chiefs in Week 16, and I'm expecting more of the same on Saturday. Kansas City finished the regular season ranked 12th in adjusted rush defense and was stout in limiting opposing backs. Part of that was thanks to them facing the ninth-highest pass rate in football, but they still held running backs to the fourth-lowest rushing success rate and second-fewest rushing yards per carry in the league. In total, KC gave up the third-fewest rushing yards to the position.

They did well to limit running backs in the passing game, too. While the Chiefs were middle-of-the-pack in target rate allowed to the position, they held running backs to the second-fewest yards per route run and a below-average aDOT (average depth of target).

Add in that Mixon popped up on Wednesday's injury report, and this is a spot I'm looking to fade Houston's lead back, taking the under on his combined rushing and receiving yards prop.

Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)

Texans-Chiefs may have the lowest total (41.5) among Divisional Round games, but that doesn't mean we can't look this way for an anytime touchdown scorer. Considering Kansas City's 25-point implied team total, the home Chiefs are my preferred side in this market. With how much they used Xavier Worthy over the latter half of the season, his +210 anytime touchdown scorer odds are eye-catching, to say the least.

In total, Worthy scored 9 touchdowns across 16 regular-season games, crossing the goal line in eight separate outings. He scored in three straight games to close out the regular season, during which he enjoyed a 30% red zone opportunity share. In those final three games, the rookie notched 8 red zone targets and 3 red zone rush attempts.

That followed his upward trend in target share, too. His three most-targeted games came in his final three regular-season appearances, during which he saw single-game target shares of 28.9%, 26.8%, and 23.7%.

Houston, meanwhile, surrendered the second-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season. They also permitted the second-highest aDOT to the position, offering Worthy multiple avenues to score even if the red zone usage isn't there.

At +210 odds, Xavier Worthy is my preferred way to attack the touchdown scorer market in this game given his recent red zone role and KC's creative goal line playbook.

You can also check out our latest 2024-25 NFL Playoffs printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.