3 Best NFL Divisional Round Player Prop Bets for Commanders at Lions

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Washington Commanders take on the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Best Player Prop Picks for Commanders at Lions

Jayden Daniels Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

In such a high-leverage spot, you know Jayden Daniels' legs will be a huge focal point for the Commanders' offense. That's been true consistently down the stretch.

Daniels' rushing declined a bit mid-season after his rib injury. He had extra rest between Weeks 11 and 12 to get healthy, though, and we've seen him turn back into a dynamic player ever since.

In Daniels' past six full games, he has averaged 10.8 carries for 69.7 yards per game, going over this prop 4 of 6 times.

One of the exceptions was last week as Todd Bowles committed resources to stopping Daniels from beating them by scrambling on late downs. Instead, Daniels beat them with his arm, and the team racked up a 59.1% late-down success rate, according to numberFire's EPA metrics. That was even better than their full-season mark of 53.9%, which ranks second in the league.

This means it's not a guarantee that Aaron Glenn deploys the same approach, which could open up additional running lanes for Daniels. The Lions let up more Rushing EPA to quarterbacks than any other playoff team in the regular season, according to Next Gen Stats, so both the data and the matchup align to say Daniels is a value here.

David Montgomery to Score the First Touchdown (+500)

With David Montgomery logging full practices all week, he seems cleared from the knee injury that held him out of the end of the regular season. If he returns to his typical role, he's undervalued in this specific market.

All year, the Lions have had a set rotation at running back where Montgomery gets the opening series while Jahmyr Gibbs gets the second. This has led to Montgomery scoring the opening touchdown of the game a whopping 6 times in his 14 games played. That's a rate of 42.9% versus his implied odds here at 16.7%.

Even after downgrading Montgomery both for facing a more lively opposing offense and for the injury, it seems likely there's value here. I believe bookmakers are under-accounting for the order in which the Lions deploy their backs, pushing me to bet on Monty in his return.

Brian Robinson Over 8.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Even with Austin Ekeler back last week, Brian Robinson's passing-game role remained strong enough for me to take the over here.

For the game, Robinson actually ran more routes than Ekeler, 17 to 13, across 39 drop backs. Robinson turned 5 targets into 22 receiving yards.

In the 7 full games the duo has played together, Robinson has averaged 2.1 targets for 14.3 yards per game, going over 8.5 receiving yards 4 times (57.1%). That's even with Robinson barely playing the second half of two of those games, one due to a blowout and the other with the Commanders playing for just seeding in Week 18.

We don't need much for this one to go over, and with the potential for a negative game script, Robinson should get enough chances for this over to be live.

You can also click here to check out the updated our 2024-25 NFL Playoffs printable bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.