3 Best NFL Coach of the Year Bets for the 2024 Season

FanDuel Sportsbook has NFL futures available, including odds on various awards markets. The Coach of the Year race -- one such market -- figures to be an exciting battle.

Before we dive into the top options, let's check out the historical benchmarks necessary to win this award.

Since 1991, all but one Coach of the Year's team finished with at least 10 wins, the lone outlier being Brian Daboll of the New York Giants with a 9-7-1 record in 2022. Dating back to 2000, the COTY's team won an average of 12 games.

The most important criterion is team improvement. In the last 15 years, the award-winning coach has helped their team improve by an average of 5.5 wins. In this span, two winning coaches improved their record by one win while every other coach won at least four additional games than the team did the season prior.

In summation, 10 wins and an improved record is a near-must to win Coach of the Year. With this in mind, let's check out the NFL Coach of the Year odds for 2024 and see which candidates could be worth backing.

NFL Coach of the Year Best Bets

Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers (+900)

One of the biggest coaching moves of the offseason came when Jim Harbaugh opted to leave the Michigan Wolverines and return to the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Off the heels of a title run with Michigan, will Harbaugh take home more hardware this season?

His outlook with the Chargers fits the bill of a typical Coach of the Year candidate. LA struggled with a 5-12 record last season, the second-worst standing in the AFC. The Chargers now own an 8.5-win total for this season with -144 odds on the over.

As mentioned, team improvement is one of the main factors for this award. Past the Chargers, only two other teams (Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals) have win totals that are set at a +3.5 win increase from the season prior. However, Carolina's 5.5-win total and Arizona's 7.5-win total are pretty well short of the aforementioned 10-win benchmark, which is a key factor for this award.

So, Harbaugh has the clearest path for year-over-year team win improvement among the coaches who have a decent shot at notching 10 wins. Even still, he's not my favorite bet in this market.

According to numberFire's NFL power rankings, LA's defense ranks 27th heading into the season. Justin Herbert is already dealing with an injury, and the offense got worse on paper after losing both Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the offseason.

Harbaugh won this award in 2011, his first season as an NFL head coach with the San Francisco 49ers. He'll have a lot of eyes on him this year and has an awesome career track record, but a poor defense and a more-questionable-than-should-be offense don't set him up for great success.

Even with the Bolts having an easy schedule, I personally think the Chargers could achieve, at the very best, a 10-7 record, so I'm more inclined to look past the favorite in the Coach of the Year market.

Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears (+1000)

Despite being on the hot seat for what seems like his entire tenure with the Chicago Bears, Matt Eberflus might wind up winning the 2024 Coach of the Year award.

As a reminder, the Bears won the Caleb Williams lottery and later selectedRome Odunze with the ninth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. They also added D'Andre Swift, Gerald Everett, and Keenan Allen to an offense that already featured D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet. Add in an 11th-ranked offensive line (via PFF) and a defense that should be able to hold up its end of the bargain, and Chicago could be in for a very fun season.

The Bears currently have a win total of 8.5 with -160 odds on the over. Chicago owns +122 odds to reach 10 wins.

Eberflus seems to have the team improvement portion of this award on lock, too. Chicago's 7-10 record last year makes that season sound better than it really was, and the Bears have gone 10-24 under Eberflus.

If the Bears can make good on their -108 odds to make the NFL playoffs and reach 10 wins, I'd be surprised if Eberflus wasn't a main talking point in the Coach of the Year discussions. Williams may have all the hype, but it's still a tall task to reach the postseason with a rookie signal-caller, a feat that could see Eberflus get rewarded.

A rookie QB and a new OC in Shane Waldron provide a low floor. If the Bears underperform even amid the awesome additions, Eberflus will be right back on the hot seat. But the unknowns also leave Chicago with an exciting ceiling, so I prefer Eberflus at +1000 to Harbaugh at +900.

Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons (+1200)

Four of the last seven NFL Coaches of the Year were first-year head coaches. That trend could continue with Raheem Morris of the Atlanta Falcons.

Morris was an assistant with Atlanta from 2015 to 2020, briefly serving as the interim head coach following the firing of Dan Quinn in 2020. He went on to spend the last three seasons as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams.

He was named Atlanta's head coach in January following the exit of Arthur Smith. Notably, Morris reportedly beat out Bill Belichick for the job.

The Falcons went 7-10 last season under Smith and Desmond Ridder. The team dumped off Ridder and signed Kirk Cousins to a massive 4-year, $180 million deal and selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Nabbing Penix following the signing of Cousins was an odd move, but nonetheless, Atlanta is locked and loaded for success this season. Cousins is armored with targets such as Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Bijan Robinson is likely in for an explosive sophomore season, and Atlanta's offensive line ranks sixth in the NFL (via PFF).

The Falcons are handed a win total of 9.5 with -142 odds on the over. The offense is well structured under Cousins, and Morris' defensive background should only help bolster an Atlanta defense that numberFire rates as the 10th-best in the league.

I think Morris should be the favorite in the Coach of the Year market. Atlanta touts a 58.7% implied probability of reaching 10 wins while the Chargers have only a 40.3% probability of doing so and Chicago has a 45.1% chance.

Not only is 10 wins very much in the cards for Morris, but team improvement is imminent. The Falcons have gone 7-10 in three straight seasons and haven't made a playoff appearance since 2017. They enter this season with -194 odds to make the NFL playoffs.

Harbaugh and Eberflus are legit COTY candidates who are primed to help their teams improve and could reach 10 wins. With that said, Morris has the best case entering the season, so I'm bullish to back him at +1200 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.