3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Vikings at Lions on Sunday Night Football

They don't make regular-season games any bigger than this one.

Sunday night's duel between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will give the winner the 1 seed and a bye while the loser goes on the road to begin the playoffs next week.

Who's going to come out on top?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Sunday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Vikings at Lions Betting Picks

Lions -2.5 (-120)

As good as the Vikings are, I think the Lions are better. Once you put them at home in a pivotal matchup, I think that gap is big enough to lay the 2.5.

This largely boils down to the offense. The Lions are second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, and the Vikings are 10th. The Lions have been 0.12 Adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play better than the Vikings on offense, a larger gap than the one between the Vikings in 10th and the Seattle Seahawks in 24th.

It's true that the Vikings' defense is much better than the Lions', especially once you adjust for all of the Lions' injuries. But offense is stickier and easier to predict, so I put more weight in that side of the ball. After doing so, the Lions grade out as being the better side.

If you don't want to deal with the points, I do also see value in the Lions' moneyline at -154 (60.6% implied odds). Regardless of the route, I think the Lions are undervalued here despite all their missing pieces on defense.

Total Under 56.5 (-115)

This is the highest total we've seen in quite some time, and you can understand why. It's two top-tier offenses, and at least one of the defenses is beat up.

It's just too high, in my opinion.

My model has this total at 53.2 points. That's the fifth-highest total since I built that model at the end of the 2022 regular season. The highest total in that stretch was in Week 15 between the Lions and Buffalo Bills, and that game featured a modest 90 points. I wouldn't be shocked if this game devolved into a similar level of shootout.

It does require an outlier-ish outcome, though. Only 19.9% of all NFL games have gone over this total for the season, and that's even with scoring being up league-wide overall. There are scenarios where this game meets expectations and still goes under.

It does help that both teams are capable of running the ball, meaning if they've got the lead with the ball late, they can suffocate the clock. We've got enough paths to an under here to feel comfortable taking it despite the two offenses involved.

Lions' First Drive Result: Any Other (+500)

This bet conflicts with the Lions -2.5, so I wouldn't recommend parlaying the two together. But straight up, this market seems to misprice a team that goes for it so often on fourth down, and a turnover on downs would get us a win here.

Overall, the Lions have gone for it on fourth down 29 times, according to Pro Football Reference, fourth most in all of football. The other teams in that area are all doggy-doo and often trying to make up ground late; the Lions -- as you know -- are just straight aggressive.

Across 16 games, the Lions' opening drive has fallen into the "any other" category three times. One of those came in the first matchup against the Vikings when the Lions failed to convert on a fake punt. This 18.8% rate is above the implied odds of 16.7%.

Head coach Dan Campbell knows his defense is banged up and facing a quality offense, meaning he's aware of how valuable points will be. I could see him coming out guns blazing, potentially incentivizing fourth-down aggression from the jump. When you combine that with the potential for a turnover, the +500 feels like it's a little lighter than it should be.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.