3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Eagles at Giants on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Eagles at Giants Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Under 40.5 (-105)

This matchup's total has dipped to 40.5 this week, yet the under still looks like the play.

Neither offense has been particularly exciting this year. Philadelphia ranks 15th in schedule-adjusted offense while New York is way down at 29th. The Eagles also love to play at a slow pace, ranking 30th in adjusted pace (per our Brandon Gdula), and both teams are below average in pass rate over expectation, increasing the likelihood of the run games keeping the clock moving. This week, Gdula projects this game to rank 12th out of 15 games in average pace and 13th in pass rate.

Four of the Giants' five games have gone under this number, and the only one that went over -- a Week 2 shootout versus the Dallas Cowboys -- featured a surprise throwback performance by Russell Wilson, a healthy Malik Nabers, and a bad Dallas pass defense. Jaxson Dart (-0.22 expected points added per dropback) is making just his third NFL start and is unlikely to light up an Eagles defense that's fifth in adjusted pass D.

Philadelphia's matchups have fallen under this number just twice, but four of their five games have come versus top-10 adjusted offenses. New York will be easily the worst offense they've faced so far.

In all, this is shaking out to be a lower-scoring slugfest between familiar divisional opponents. Historically, overs don't hit as often in Thursday Night Football games, too.

Saquon Barkley Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Saquon Barkley has gotten off to a slow start this year and hasn't been nearly as efficient and explosive as he was in his epic 2024 campaign. However, he also hasn't had the easiest string of matchups, and this Giants team has been one of the NFL's worst at stopping the run.

Through five games, Barkley has averaged just 53.4 rushing yards per game and gone over this number only once, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for this wager.

That being said, his last three games have come against the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Denver Broncos, all teams that have held opposing running backs to -0.14 expected points added per carry (EPA/C) or worse. By our metrics, the Rams, Bucs, and Broncos rank 15th, 8th, and 6th, respectively, in schedule-adjusted rush defense, as well. Barkley was held to 46, 43, and 30 rushing yards in those matchups.

On the other hand, Barkley found far more running room in the first two weeks versus the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs, two teams that have struggled versus the run. Dallas is 22nd in adjusted rush defense while Kansas City is 29th, and that helped Barkley to 60 and 88 rushing yards in those games.

Most notably, that 88-yard performance versus KC came against a team that gives up the third-most EPA/C to running backs (0.05). Just six defenses have given up positive EPA/C to the position, and it just so happens the Giants are one of them at an even worse 0.07 EPA/C. Unsurprisingly, New York fares poorly in adjusted rush defense, ranking 31st.

Barkley has averaged 19.3 carries per game in Philadelphia's wins, and this was an offense that was 27th in pass rate over expectation before uncharacteristically airing it out in last week's loss to Denver last week. Considering the likelihood of a positive game script for the favored Eagles, we should expect this offense to go back to its run-heavy ways, particularly against such a weak rush defense.

Our NFL projections project Barkley for 91.3 rushing yards, which should further give us confidence in the over.

Theo Johnson Any Time Touchdown (+410)

Our Annie Nader likes Theo Johnson to reach 30+ receiving yards as one of her favorite player props tonight, and I'm fully on board. If you're looking to take a bigger swing, clicking on his name in the any time touchdown market is another option, as well.

In Dart's two starts, Johnson is tied for a team-high 20.3% target share, and he's been busy near the goal line, rocking a 50.0% red zone target share and 66.7% end zone target share. That's helped him to three touchdowns already alongside Dart.

Much of that red zone work came in a pass-heavy Week 5, but even when we expand out to the full season, Johnson has a team-high 37.5% red zone target share, so he's been in the red zone game plan regardless of the quarterback (and when Nabers was still healthy). In fact, his eight red zone targets is tied for third-most in the entire NFL.

Johnson seems be going a bit overlooked in this market, as he has just the fifth-shortest odds among Giants players to score a touchdown despite looking like Dart's primary target in scoring position.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.