3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Christmas Day

With only two games on Christmas Day, there was never a guarantee we could find value in the betting market.

I think we got a little lucky, though, with options in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds for both contests.

Let's dig into where I'm seeing value for the opener -- the Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers -- first, and then we'll outline a pair of bets I like for the Baltimore Ravens at the Houston Texans.

Christmas Day NFL Betting Picks

Chiefs at Steelers

Total Over 43.5 (-105)

The Chiefs' offense showed some life in Marquise Brown's debut, and that could help spark this game toward the over.

In that one, Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.29 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. Mahomes was at 0.13 before that point, so this was a big bump. Given it came against a stout Texans defense, it's extra impressive.

The Steelers' offense has scuffled without George Pickens, but Pickens returned to practice Sunday, and head coach Mike Tomlin said Pickens has a real chance to play. Additionally, stud Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones didn't practice, meaning injuries also could point toward an over here.

Ravens at Texans

Ravens -3.5 (-120)

The Texans' offense has struggled all year long. Now they won't have Tank Dell, further sapping them of juice and creating value in the Ravens.

Even in the games since Nico Collins' return, C.J. Stroud has averaged 0.07 Passing NEP per drop back. He'll now be forced to rely on Dalton Schultz and Robert Woods as the secondary options behind Collins. It'd help if John Metchie III were able to return from a one-game absence, and he did log a limited session on Sunday, but this is still an ultra-thin group.

Laying 3.5 on the road on a short week is tough. But my model has the Ravens favored by 6.5, so I'm comfortable doing this, in large part because of the Texans' injuries.

Total Over 47.5 (-105)

After spending that whole blurb dumping on the Texans' offense, it may feel odd to also like the over.

Most of the credit here, though, goes to the Ravens.

The Ravens have averaged 27.9 points per game for the season, hitting 34-plus in in 7 of 15 games. They've done that while playing only two games indoors, an advantage they will add on Wednesday.

Additionally, the Ravens' defense is still far from perfect. That's why Ravens games have featured an average of 53.4 points per game with 11 of them going over this total.

My model has this total at 50.8, far enough above the total for me to feel good with the over.

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Which bets stand out to you for Christmas Day? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.