3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 18

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Saturday as the Carolina Panthers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Panthers at Buccaneers Week 18 Betting Picks

Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+360)

As you'll see here later, I'm showing value in the Bucs' passing game as a whole, which is unnerving with Baker Mayfield's recent struggles. I think the market's accounting for that enough where some players wind up being buy targets, including Emeka Egbuka.

Egbuka is in a mega-rut of his own, and it has led to a dip in his role. Last week, he ran a route on just 52.0% of the team's drop backs, a massive decrease from his previous every-down role. Since Mike Evans' and Jalen McMillan's returns, Egbuka's target share is down to 13.9%.

Egbuka is still getting high-leverage looks, though. He's averaging two deep targets per game in this three-game split, equating to a 28.6% team share. Although the red-zone targets haven't been there, he showed early in the year he can be a major contributor there.

With the recent dip, I've had to downgrade Egbuka significantly in my anytime touchdown model. His projected receiving touchdown share is lower than that of Evans, McMillan, and Chris Godwin.

Even with that reduction, I have his fair touchdown odds at +290. The talent is still there; we just haven't seen it in a while. This seems like a good buy-low spot given the money targets he can earn.

Jalen McMillan Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

As willing as I am to buy into Egbuka, I also think the market is underrating McMillan.

McMillan morphed into an alpha last week, turning 9 targets into 7 receptions for 114 yards. He earned three deep targets, something he did often as a rookie.

In three games since his return, McMillan is averaging 2.61 yards per route run. He did still run a route on just 52.0% of the drop backs last week, but that share figures to rise with how effective he has been.

McMillan has fresh legs, and it's hard to say that about Egbuka and Godwin. It seems like that's paying dividends. Plus, with McMillan's yardage market this low and Egbuka's touchdown odds as long as they are, I can bet both without feeling like one bet kneecaps the other. All four of these receivers are getting good work, so we'll just have to hope Mayfield can effectively get them the rock.

Rico Dowdle Under 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

We were on Rico Dowdle's under for this matchup two weeks ago, and that one hit pretty easily. Let's run it back here.

Dowdle's role just hasn't been as good recently. His snap rate has been below 65% for 5 straight games as he has ceded work to Chuba Hubbard. In that span, Dowdle is averaging just 46.6 rushing yards per game. He has gone under 54.5 rushing yards in 3 of those 5, and he went under in the 2 games before his snap rate dipped, as well.

Rush defense has not been one of the Bucs' plentiful issues. They've let up the fourth-lowest schedule-adjusted running back success rate. They're just 22nd against the pass in numberFire's metrics, so the best approach when facing them is to air it out. That's not great for Dowdle in this market.

Once you combine the matchup with Dowdle's dwindling load, I'm happy to go back to the well with this under again.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.