3 Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 12/12/24
The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.
From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.
Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Today's Best NBA Player Prop Picks
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
Bam Adebayo Over 33.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)
The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat will meet up for the third time of the season.
Toronto (11th) plays at a much more accelerated pace than Miami (28th). Historically, pace-up games have done wonders for Bam Adebayo's counting stats, so I like him to go over 33.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) tonight.
In eight games versus top-12 pace teams, Adebayo is averaging 38.4 PRA. He exceeded 33.5 PRA in seven of those eight contests (87.5% rate) and missed by the hook once. These -115 odds imply only a 53.5% probability.
Bam Adebayo - Pts + Reb + Ast
Outside of that high pace split, Bam is netting a mere 27.2 PRA. The difference is unbelievably drastic, and I'm willing to bet on the trend since there are other things working in his favor tonight, too.
The Raptors come in with the ninth-worst defensive rating. Bam's gaining 36.1 PRA when facing the bottom-10 defenses in the league, while he's netting a lesser 28.5 PRA outside this split. Further, Toronto is letting up the 10th-most points per 36 minutes to opposing centers and allowed Adebayo to go off for 34 and 40 PRA in their last two meetings. It doesn't hurt that our guy is due for shooting regression, netting -1.4 points above expectation this season.
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans
Keegan Murray 2+ Made Threes (-110)
A three-point regression candidate is facing a meh three-point D and has great odds on his made trios prop. Deal.
Keegan Murray is shooting threes at a harsh 29.2% clip after making them at a more palatable 37.2% rate across his first two seasons in the league. He should be netting an even 2.0 three-point makes (3PM) per game this year based on his long-term shooting efficiency averages.
Murray sees decent volume from downtown. He's hoisting 5.5 three-point attempts (3PA) each night and has taken at least 5 3PA in 72.0% of his games this season. The Sacramento Kings will draw a matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans, which could allow the shooting regression to come on strong.
The Pelicans struggle with the third-worst defense in the league. They're surrendering 14.3 3PM (fourth-most in the NBA) and 38.7 3PA (sixth-most) per game and let opposing clubs shoot the long ball at a 37.0% rate (seventh-highest).
Despite the terrible shooting luck, Murray has still nailed at least two threes in nearly half (12 out of 25) of his games. In the event that positive regression and a friendly matchup collide at the perfect time, it seems apt to target Murray in the alternate market.
You can get Keegan Murray 3+ Made Threes -- something he has achieved in two of his last four -- at +230 odds. Notably, our NBA projections expect Murray to drill 2.5 three-pointers in this one.
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points (-111)
Jayson Tatum is averaging 28.2 points per game. He's exceeded 26.5 points in 60.9% of contests this season, but these -111 odds imply only a 52.6% implied probability.
While that alone would have me bullish on Tatum's points prop, there's even more working in his favor tonight.
The Boston Celtics haven't played a basketball game since this past Saturday. As of Saturday, Tatum was one of just nine players across the league who participated in 23 games and averaged north of 35 minutes. The fatigue started to show itself when he went 6-for-21 (28.6% FG%) from the field over the weekend. With four full days of much-needed rest under his belt, I'm expecting Tatum to come out strong against the Detroit Pistons tonight.
Moneyline
Total Points
Spread Betting
Tatum is amassing 29.1 points per game against teams outside the top eight in defensive rating. He eclipsed 26.5 points in 68.4% of games in this split. That puts him in a good spot to perform against Detroit's middle-of-the-road 15th-ranked D. The Pistons are also coughing up the sixth-most made threes, while Tatum's netting a career-high 40.7% of his points from behind the arc. When these teams met up in late October, Tatum contributed 37 points despite shooting hardly above his FG% average.
You can get Tatum To Score 30+ Points at +155 odds, which imply just a 39.2% probability despite the fact that the MVP contender has scored 30+ in more games (12) than not (11) this season.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.