3 Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 1/16/25

The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.

From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.

Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's Best NBA Player Prop Picks

Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards

Tyus Jones 2+ Made Threes (-145) / 3+ Made Threes (+210)

Bradley Beal (ankle) is listed as doubtful for tonight's competition against the Washington Wizards. His absence should allow Tyus Jones -- whose minutes have been down -- to reclaim a meatier role. That's just one of the reasons why I like Jones' made threes prop tonight.

Jones is averaging 2.1 three-point makes (3PM) for the season. He's made at least two threes in 57.9% of games and has nailed three triples in 36.8% of games -- up from the 32.3% implied probability on these +210 odds.

Washington serves as the easiest matchup in basketball. They rank fourth in pace and dead-last in defensive rating. They're also coughing up the most three-point attempts (40.4) per game.

Jones is netting 2.2 3PM and has made at least two threes in 66.7% of games versus top-10 pace teams. When playing a bottom-10 defense, Jones has made two threes at a 66.7% rate and three three-pointers at a cushy 55.6% rate.

In 10 games without Beal this season, Jones averaged 2.7 3PM on 32.2 minutes. He made two threes in 80.0% of the games in the split and drained three threes in 50.0% of those contests. With Beal's absence colliding with the soft matchup, this could end up being a fruitful night for Jones.

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers

James Harden Over 35.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)

James Harden played only 23 minutes in last night's 59-point rout over the Brooklyn Nets, but he still managed to tally 38 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) in his abridged appearance. I like him to hover around that PRA range again in tonight's contest against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Harden is averaging 35.4 PRA. He's been extra special against weak competition and seems primed to ravage Portland's 27th-ranked defense.

Here's a look at Harden's PRA output versus the bottom 10 defenses in the NBA: 38, 33, 48, 31, 54, 37, 48, 34, 49, and 43 PRA. In the split, he has averaged 41.5 PRA and cleared 35.5 PRA at a 70.0% rate. Even his floor in this sample (31 PRA) is encouraging.

The Blazers let up the seventh-most points, eighth-most assists, and 12th-most rebounds per game. The road Clippers are favored by just 7.0 points, putting Harden in a spot to get decent run as there isn't a ton of blowout risk. Notably, 13 of Harden's last 25 games have been decided by at least 20 points, yet he's still managed to consistently stuff the stat sheet.

The kicker? Portland surrenders the 10th-most free throw attempts per game and the fourth-most FT attempts on their home court. Unsurprisingly, Harden shoots the sixth-most charity stripe attempts in the league.

Here's a look at his PRA output against clubs that rank in the top eight of most free throws allowed: 43, 38, 54, 38, 31, 37, 36, 37, and 34 PRA. That's good for a 38.7 PRA average and a 77.8% hit rate on the over at this line.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Record 6+ Assists (-125)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is converting potential assists to the stat sheet at the lowest rate in the NBA (among eligible players).

While he's netting 6.0 dimes per game, he should be averaging 7.0 assists based on the league average conversion rate. Positive regression could be forthcoming, so I like him to dish out at least six assists in tonight's marquee game against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Cavs come in with the eighth-best defensive rating. SGA has played 12 games against top-eight defenses. In this split, he's averaging 6.3 dimes and has notched at least six assists in 66.7% of games.

Cleveland surrenders the 10th-most assists per game to guards. Both Cleveland (6th) and OKC (8th) play at a quick pace, leaving us with a slate-high 233.0 over/under.

There should be a lot of points to go around, and Cleveland has top defensive guards who will look to turn SGA into a passer.

Our NBA projections expect SGA to dish out 6.5 dimes in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.