3 Best NBA MVP Bets for the 2024-2025 Season

The 2024-2025 NBA season tips off in just 20 days, so we can start to check in on everyone's favorite debate: the MVP award.

Nikola Jokic is the reigning Most Valuable Player and has won the award in three of his last four campaigns. Since the 2018-2019 season, Jokic, Joel Embiid, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the only players who have taken home the hardware.

Will this year be the same old, same old, with our chalky bigs dominating the conversation and eventually winning out? Could we see a return to the days of yore where guards were not only considered but consistently crowned the title?

Before we dive into FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds and NBA MVP odds, let's check out the historical criteria for this award to help gauge where we can find betting value.

NBA MVP Criteria

Say what you will about the NBA awards voting body, but they're more consistent in their verdicts than one might suspect.

Nine straight (player-eligible) MVPs have led the league in Player Impact Estimate (PIE). The PIE formula is fairly dense but worth checking out for the sake of this conversation. PIE utilizes the lion's share of statistical categories in the box score to measure a player's all-around contribution to the game.

The ever-changing NBA landscape -- and how it impacts PIE -- might help explain why bigs have won the MVP in six consecutive seasons after 11 straight seasons of seeing guards and small forwards take home the award.

In the 2017-2018 season -- the last year in which a non-big won the MVP -- the median NBA team averaged 29.1 three-point attempts (3PA) and 86.1 field goal attempts (FGA). In the 2023-2024 season, the median team averaged 35.3 3PA and 89.3 FGA per game. Clearly, three-point shooting has skyrocketed. The PIE measurement rewards players for points but does not offer a kicker for three-point makes, specifically. It does, however, take into account missed field goals and turnovers. In turn, it's easy to see why bigs such as Jokic and Embiid are dominating the PIE category against guards who are negatively affected by turnovers and voluminous shooting from low-percentage areas of the floor.

Past PIE, team performance is a key factor in the MVP race. In the 21st century, an MVP winner's team posted a minimum .639 winning percentage. That minimum instance was Giannis with the Milwaukee Bucks in the COVID-shortened 2020-2021 season. Milwaukee held a 46-26 record and clinched the third seed that year. So, in an 82-game season, we would need a team to hover around 52 wins in order to meet this unwritten rule.

Prior to last season, the NBA and its players reached a new collective bargaining agreement that stated players must participate in a minimum of 65 games -- and play 20 minutes in those games -- to be eligible for season-end awards. That's something else to keep in mind as you make your MVP pick.

With that, let's take a look at FanDuel's NBA MVP odds and see which players could build a strong case this go-around.

NBA MVP Betting Picks

Luka Doncic (+360)

Luka Doncic has the shortest odds to win the MVP this season, and he's got a pretty good case.

Let's start with the two elephants in the room: Jokic and Embiid. These are the guys for our other contenders to beat, and Doncic has one of the best shots to do just that. Based on the game minimum criteria, Embiid (+700) wouldn't have been eligible to win MVP in six of his eight seasons thus far. He's played 65-plus games only twice in his career -- and barely -- playing 66 in one season and a career-high 68 contests in the season prior. Last year, he suited up for just 39 games. His lack of durability makes him very beatable in the MVP market. Jokic (+400) is a whole other beast who could have cracks in his case this season. More on that later.

Doncic averaged 33.9 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game a season ago. He also shot threes (38.2%) and free throws (78.6%) at career-high clips and averaged the fewest fouls (2.1) since his rookie season. This stat sheet dominance and uptick in efficiency allowed Doncic to finish the year with a 20.0% PIE, the second-highest behind Jokic's 21.1% PIE.

Luka may have whined about his "injuries" during last year's postseason, but he's proven quite durable in his six-year career. He played 70 games last season and has suited up for at least 65 games in all but one season, playing 61 contests in the lone outlier year.

As mentioned, we should be shooting for an MVP winner's team to win at least 52 games. Last season, the Dallas Mavericks went 50-32. Dallas' win total for this season is set at 49.5.

They added Klay Thompson, which these days could hurt a team. But despite my doubts about Thompson, I am intrigued by the three-year, $27 million contract they handed Naji Marshall. Last season, Marshall ranked sixth in defensive rating (and second among non-Timberwolves) among players who suited up for at least 65 games. The Mavs needed provisions on defense and Marshall could prove to be a great signing. numberFire's NBA projections forecast Dallas to win 53.2 games this season, a hair above our magic number.

Doncic has yet to win an MVP in his career and may have partially shed a sour reputation after carrying the Mavs to the NBA Finals last season. He finished third in MVP voting a season ago, notching four first-place votes.

Nikola Jokic (+400)

Jokic has won the MVP in three of his last four seasons and finished second in voting in the 2022-2023 season. Embiid's PIE (21.3%) in his winning season was hardly better than Jokic's (21.1%).

The Joker's ungodly efficiency and ability to nearly average a triple-double will always keep him in the MVP conversation. But making an argument for the chalk of all chalks is no fun and quite straightforward. Instead, let's examine how Jokic could fall short this season.

Voter fatigue doesn't rear its head too much in the NBA. In the 21st century, there have been 24 MVP awards but only 15 different players won one. However, if Jokic were to win it again this year, he would become just the sixth player in NBA history to win at least four MVPs, joining Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James. Those first three guys were playing in a much different era than today's, so we'd be having Jokic join a modern list that includes just Jordan and LeBron. Is the NBA voting body ready for Jokic to join this stratosphere? I wouldn't be surprised to see him held to a higher standard than ever before this season.

Jokic will turn 30 years old this season. Steve Nash is the only player in the 21st century to win an MVP after turning the big three-o. Even LeBron stopped winning them by the time he was 28.

Jokic saw a dip in shooting efficiency last season. The Denver Nuggets also look a bit strange this season, adding Russell Westbrook to the fold. Denver had a disappointing exit in last year's postseason and currently have a 50.5 win total, a few victories below where it'd likely need to be.

The Western Conference is strong, and the Nuggets could easily fail to clinch a top-three seed. Jokic's age could result in tapped-back efficiency in comparison to some of our younger MVP candidates. The Nuggets -- while still very good -- are no longer ruling the league, and voter fatigue could finally rear its head in this paramount season. At the risk of biting my thumb at one of our league's best players to date, I at least see a legitimate case for Jokic to not win MVP this season, paving the path for a fresh face to take home the hardware.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is my favorite bet to win MVP this season. Here's why.

Last season, there were four eligible players to notch an 18.7% PIE or better: Jokic, Doncic, Antetokounmpo, and SGA. Past them, there was a pretty big drop-off. The gap between SGA (fourth-best; 18.7%) and the next-best player was equivalent to the gap between the fifth-best and 14th-best PIE scores.

So, while he didn't have the league's best PIE, he was definitely up there. And we've seen SGA's PIE rise each season. He posted a 13.4% PIE in 2022, a 17.8% PIE in 2023, and then that 18.7% PIE last season. The 26-year-old should, in theory, get only better as he nears his prime. He's entering his seventh season in the league. In the last 15 years, MVP winners have, on average, won the award in their seventh or eighth season.

Shai shined with a 63.6% true shooting percentage last season. That was not only the highest among all NBA guards but also nearing Jokic (65.0%) and Giannis (64.9%) territory. That'll certainly help his PIE, and so will his lack of turnovers (2.0 per game last season) and ability to snatch steals (league-leading 2.0 steals per game). He also dished out 6.2 dimes, grabbed 5.5 rebounds, and averaged 30.2 points despite little reliance on the three-ball, so his efficiency on both sides of the court is awesome and will help him continue to raise his PIE.

The Oklahoma City Thunder figure to be one of the best teams in basketball. Their win total is set at 56.5 wins (second-most behind the Boston Celtics) and numberFire forecasts them to win 55.8 games, also the second-most behind Boston (60.0). Heading into the season, SGA has far more security for the in-team performance criteria of this award than someone like Doncic.

The Thunder dumped off Josh Giddey, who was averaging 10.6 FGA, and added Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso, two defensive-minded players who won't be eating up the inefficient shot volume that Giddey left behind. Their roster is built for SGA to explode in a season where he is entering his prime.

SGA finished second in MVP voting a season ago. Jokic got 79 first-place votes, SGA received 15, Luka notched 4, and Giannis scored 1. The fact that Shai got a decent portion of nods in the first-place column is quite encouraging. The voters are already on him and could have a hard time fading him this go-around given all the circumstances at play. He's my top pick to win MVP.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.