3 Best NBA Finals Player Prop Bets for Pacers vs. Thunder in Game 1

Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder tips off tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET.

The Thunder are a healthy 9.5-point home favorite in the opening game, and the over/under is up at 231.0 points.

Which props stand out for Game 1? Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds and NBA player props, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Player Prop Picks for Pacers vs. Thunder in Game 1 of the NBA Finals

Lu Dort 3+ Made Threes (+172)

Oklahoma City owns a 120.5 implied team total in this pace-meets-pace matchup. Luguentz Dort can carve himself a piece of that pie.

Dort was a three-point assassin at his home venue this season, shooting threes at a 44.6% clip at Paycom Center. Including the regular season and playoffs, he's drilled at least three three-pointers in 56.5% of home games -- up from the 36.7% implied probability on these +172 odds.

Indiana already has enough to deal with in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren, which could lend itself to wide open looks for Dort. Moreover, he figures to log a heavy dose of minutes considering he's the main guy who will take on the Tyrese Haliburton defensive assignment.

Dort logged 33 and 35 minutes -- up from his 29.2 minute per game average -- in two contests against Indiana this season. He held Haliburton to his lowest usage rate of the season in one of those meetings. On top of that, he nailed three and six treys in those games. I think he has a trio of triples in him for tonight.

Aaron Nesmith Over 11.5 Points (+102)

The legend of Aaron Nesmith was formed in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but he's been an impactful scorer throughout these playoffs.

Nesmith has tipped over 11.5 points in 11 out of 16 postseason games -- good for a 68.8% hit rate. He made this grade in 62.8% of 20-plus minute regular-season contests, as well. Whichever way you spin it, there seems to be value in supporting these +102 odds (49.5% implied probability).

A pretty track record isn't the only reason to be high on Nesmith.

OKC has the personnel to limit Haliburton's usage. They'll look to do just that, as the Pacers are 8-0 this postseason when Hali takes on a 23.6% usage rate or higher, while they are 4-4 when he fails to meet that mark. If OKC's defense is to play this one on their terms, the "others" on Indiana -- Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, T.J. McConnell, etc. -- will be granted a fair share of scoring looks.

If I'm Indiana, I'll probably look to avoid too many shot attempts from someone like Nembhard. But Nesmith? That'll do. Though limited to just 45 games in the regular season, he did manage 50-40-90 shooting splits and has evolved into an exciting two-way player. Look for him to outdo the market's expectations in Game 1.

Isaiah Hartenstein Under 16.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

I generally like the over for this game. I'm also preparing for OKC to put on an offensive clinic in one of these first two home games, which makes it a bit harder to get behind fading a Thunder player. That said, I do have questions about what Isaiah Hartenstein's role will look like in this series, which puts me on the under for his combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop in Game 1.

OKC's double-big lineup is a luxury, not a way of life. They can utilize the Hartenstein-Chet Holmgren combo as they see fit and have all the room in the world to totally ditch it. We, more or less, saw them do just that in the Western Conference Finals. Hartenstein played 20 and 27 minutes in the first two games before dipping to 19, 16, and 17 minutes. It resulted in him recording under 16.5 PRA in all but one of those games.

Indiana's guards will welcome the chance to hunt Hartenstein on switches -- a big reason why I think his minutes could be limited this series. Hartenstein held a -8.2 and +3.4 net rating in two games against Indiana this season, both of which were the second-worst marks on the team. He currently has a team-worst playoff net rating among the eight OKC players who have logged at least 200 minutes this postseason. This is not to say Hartenstein doesn't have his upsides -- it says more about how good OKC is that they can afford to use him sparingly -- though he might be a clunky fit in this series.

You can also check out our latest 2025 NBA Playoffs printable bracket, which includes the seeding and matchups for each conference.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.