3 Best NBA Bets and Predictions for Thursday 2/13/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

Warriors Over 105.5 Points (-108)

The Golden State Warriors average 112.1 points per game (12th-fewest) and have a 52.8% effective field goal percentage (8th-lowest) and face the Houston Rockets' 4th-best defensive rating. However, Golden State has a newfound strength that could them succeed offensively tonight.

We should expect a little less production out of this offense considering the matchup on the road, but the 105.5-point team total has enough room for value. The Warriors have failed to go over 105 points only twice across their last 10 games.

Houston does an excellent job of defending the three by giving up the second-fewest makes and attempts from three per game. While the Rockets are stingy on the perimeter, giving up the 2nd-lowest shot distribution from three, the interior is more vulnerable by allowing the 11th-highest distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes). Houston also surrenders the 15th-most points in the paint per contest.

In general, the Warriors lean on the three with third-most attempts per game. However, they are not completely incapable of attacking the rim. This area is improved with Jimmy Butler joining the squad. He takes 70.4% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim and is averaging 22.0 PPG and 1.0 three-point shots per game over his three appearances with Golden State.

In three games with Butler in the lineup, the Warriors are racking up 52.7 points in the paint per game -- which is notably higher than their season-long average of 45.1 points in the paint per contest.

Led by an improved paint attack, Golden State has enough to find success against the Rockets. DRatings' projections have the Warriors totaling 106.6 points.

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks

Mavericks Moneyline (+102)

Despite losing three straight games while going 1-4 over the last five, the Miami Heat are still 1.5-point favorites on the road against the Dallas Mavericks. Even with a boatload of controversy surrounding the Mavs, they've still gone 3-1 over the previous four.

Injuries are a huge issue for Dallas right now, for Dereck Lively (ankle), Anthony Davis (groin), Caleb Martin (hip), and Daniel Gafford (knee) will all be out for a couple of weeks. Plus, PJ Washington (ankle) missed Wednesday's game and has an unknown status for tonight's game.

The Mavs' frontcourt is clearly hampered, but the Heat have the fifth-lowest shot distribution around the rim and average the seventh-fewest points in the paint per game. Instead, Miami has the seventh-highest three-point shot distribution, and Dallas yields the third-lowest three-point shot distribution.

Amid various injuries, the Mavericks' defense could perform better than expected. This paired with excellent guard play could engineer another upset win -- similar to Wednesday's four-point win as 7.5-point underdogs against the Warriors.

Kyrie Irving is blistering hot, logging 36.0 PPG while shooting 52.0% from the field over his last two. Klay Thompson is also posting 18.0 PPG over his last two, and Max Christie has recorded 17.0 PPG while shooting 50.9% over his first five games as a Mav (8.5 PPG prior to trade).

The Heat's defensive backcourt isn't the most daunting in the world, featuring Tyler Herro (115.5 defensive rating) and Terry Rozier (116.1 defensive rating). Newly acquired pieces Davion Mitchell (112.6 defensive rating prior to trade) and Andrew Wiggins (112.7 defensive rating prior to trade) should help going forward, but Dallas' flourishing guards will still have some favorable matchups today.

The Mavericks could hide some of their frontcourt injuries tonight, and exceptional guard play only produces more confidence. With DRatings favoring the Heat 111.8-111.7, the Dallas moneyline is intriguing considering the plus odds.

Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz

Jazz +9.5 (-112)

Stop me if you've heard this one -- Kawhi Leonard (rest) is out. While he's had minimal impact with 16.3 PPG over only 15 appearances, this is still a hit to a Los Angeles Clippers offense that logs only 110.8 PPG (10th-fewest).

Ranking 19th in offensive rating, LA is led by the league's 2nd-best defensive rating. The 13-40 Utah Jazz are hard to rely on, but I actually like their matchup tonight.

Outside of Collin Sexton dealing with an ankle injury, Utah is pretty healthy. It shoots 8th-most three-pointers per game while making the 11th-most per contest. The Jazz carrying the eighth-highest three-point shot distribution isn't a surprise, and the Clippers give up the fourth-highest shot distribution from three.

On the other side of the court, Los Angeles has the ninth-highest shot distribution around the rim. But Utah allows the 4th-lowest shot distribution around the rim while surrendering the 12th-fewest points in the paint per game.

Led by good matchups in shot distributions, the Jazz are a solid pick to cover. DRatings have the Clips winning 115.3-106.9, pointing to that Utah spread.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.