3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Saturday 12/14/24
The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.
However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.
While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.
Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
Bucks Over 117.5 Points (-104)
Home Team Total Points
The Atlanta Hawks have given up this mark to their opponents in four of the last five games, and the Milwaukee Bucks are healthy at the right time.
Atlanta and Milwaukee begin today's NBA Cup semifinal action, so my only trepidation around this line is the neutral-site gym in Las Vegas. Otherwise, according to PBP Stats, Milwaukee has a 119.5 offensive rating (ORTG) in games that Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton have all played. That would rank fourth in the NBA extrapolated to the whole season.
Meanwhile, the Hawks' improved defensive rating (113.8 DRTG; 17th in the NBA) is still offset for scoring by playing at the league's third-fastest pace. Their opponents have averaged 119.1 points per game (PPG), and this current Milwaukee squad isn't "average".
Trae Young has been sensational and efficient in this tournament, so I'd rather not mess around with a spread even though the Bucks' offense will do damage.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Under 216.0 Points (-108)
Jalen Williams Under 26.5 Points and Assists (-104)
Total Points
This takes some stones to tail.
The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder have played two combined matchups this season, and they've averaged 234.0 combined points per game in them. I'm guessing this over will be the most public NBA play of the day.
However, there's context to that number. OKC has an absurd 59.0 true-shooting percentage (TS%) in their matchups with Houston, and the Rockets (53.9 TS%) have done their fair share of damage. It's a longshot parlay that not one of these teams has had an off shooting night in four combined chances against the very two best DRTGs in the NBA.
That's especially true when the pace between them isn't special. OKC (10th) nor Houston (14th) are outliers in that regard.
Is a neutral-site gym the straw that will stir the drink into a shooting slump for one of these squads? Oddsmakers believe so, and I'll trust in one of these two defenses, as well. Remember, there's no point-differential aspect to the semifinal games, either.
Jalen Williams - Pts + Ast
As you'd expect in a game so far from projections versus team history, we have a ton of unders in the prop market that make sense. This one for Jalen Williams stood out.
Williams has currently been cast as OKC's four due to Chet Holmgren's hip injury, and he's struggled with the Rockets' size in two matchups, averaging just 23.0 points and assists (PA).
That's nothing new for the Rockets, who cede the eighth-fewest points and second-fewest assists to power forwards.
JDub has struggled to reach this mark in two offense-friendly matchups. If this total is indeed suppressed, how far could the output plummet? Our NBA DFS projections forecast just 24.8 PA for him in tonight's game, meaning we'd set this under closer to -181.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.