3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Rockets at Kings

Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.

You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.

Which bets stand out today as the Houston Rockets face the Sacramento Kings?

Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.

Rockets at Kings Betting Picks

Rockets Moneyline (+152)

I'm not one to advocate for a team that will be playing their second road game in as many days, but I'm also not one to pass up the opportunity to back the Houston Rockets (27-12) at +152 odds against a lesser Sacramento Kings (20-20) team.

Houston comes in with a +6.2 net rating while Sacramento owns a +2.6 net rating. The Rockets actually have a better net rating on the road (+6.7) and tout a 13-6 record in that split. The Kings, meanwhile, have gone a rough 10-12 at home.

The Rockets check in with the third-best defensive rating in the league. The Kings have gone 4-7 against the top 9 defenses and struggle with a -30 point differential in this split.

This young Houston group has gone an iffy 3-4 on the second leg of a back-to-back this season, but all of those drops were lost by six points or fewer and they own a +24 point differential in this split. I should note that three of those four losses came against strong and healthy competition, including the Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks, and San Antonio Spurs.

Sacramento ranks 14th in defensive rating and 18th at home. The Rockets have gone a convincing 19-4 against teams that fare outside the top 11 on defense, including 8-1 on the road.

Simply put, I don't think Houston should have just a 39.7% win chance (via +152 odds) against a non-powerhouse.

Jalen Green Under 23.5 Points (-106)

Jalen Green is on a heater of all heaters. He's averaging 32 points across his last six games and has gone a breathtaking 32-for-64 (50.0% 3P%) from distance in that span.

I'm calling an end to that hot streak, and I don't think that takes away too much from betting Houston outright.

On the season, Green is averaging 21.3 points per game and has scored under 23.5 points at a 64.1% clip, up from the 51.5% probability on these -106 odds.

Most telling is his output against fast-paced teams. The Kings operate at the 13th-quickest pace in the league and rank seventh in pace this month. Green, meanwhile, has scored under 23.5 points in a mammoth 80.0% of games (16 out of 20) versus top 15 pace clubs, whereas he averages 23.4 points outside this split.

While it's intimidating to bet against Green given his recent play, the 64.1% hit rate on the under and the 80.0% hit rate in that relevant pace split are hard to deny.

Plus, the Rockets have gone 17-8 in games where Green scored under 23.5 points, so the correlation between these two bets is weak enough for me to feel ok betting against Green while betting on Houston.

Keegan Murray Over 10.5 Points (-125)

Keegan Murray has cleared this prop in five straight games and could continue that trend tonight.

On the season, Murray is averaging 11.9 points. He's scored 10 points in 70.3% of games and has cracked over 10.5 points at a 59.5% rate, up from the 55.5% implied probability on these -125 odds.

As mentioned, the Rockets come in with the third-best defense in the league. Great opposing defenses have historically led to increased opportunities for the at times forgotten about Murray.

Murray is averaging 12.1 points and has cleared 10.5 points in 66.7% of games versus top 12 defenses. He's eclipsed this prop at a 70.0% rate (7 out of 10 contests) against the top 9 defenses. That includes one 13-point outing against Houston earlier this season.

Our NBA DFS projections expect Murray to score 13.8 points in this matchup. His defensive qualities (leads the team in defensive win shares) should keep him on the court down the stretch. Notably, Murray has been playing 38.3 minutes (third-most) across his last four, evidently winning favor with new interim head coach Doug Christie.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.